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Emergency deployment of direct air capture as a response to the climate crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Hanna

    (University of California San Diego
    University of California San Diego)

  • Ahmed Abdulla

    (University of California San Diego
    Carleton University)

  • Yangyang Xu

    (Texas A&M University)

  • David G. Victor

    (University of California San Diego
    University of California San Diego
    Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego
    The Brookings Institution)

Abstract

Though highly motivated to slow the climate crisis, governments may struggle to impose costly polices on entrenched interest groups, resulting in a greater need for negative emissions. Here, we model wartime-like crash deployment of direct air capture (DAC) as a policy response to the climate crisis, calculating funding, net CO2 removal, and climate impacts. An emergency DAC program, with investment of 1.2–1.9% of global GDP annually, removes 2.2–2.3 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2050, 13–20 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2075, and 570–840 GtCO2 cumulatively over 2025–2100. Compared to a future in which policy efforts to control emissions follow current trends (SSP2-4.5), DAC substantially hastens the onset of net-zero CO2 emissions (to 2085–2095) and peak warming (to 2090–2095); yet warming still reaches 2.4–2.5 °C in 2100. Such massive CO2 removals hinge on near-term investment to boost the future capacity for upscaling. DAC is most cost-effective when using electricity sources already available today: hydropower and natural gas with renewables; fully renewable systems are more expensive because their low load factors do not allow efficient amortization of capital-intensive DAC plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Hanna & Ahmed Abdulla & Yangyang Xu & David G. Victor, 2021. "Emergency deployment of direct air capture as a response to the climate crisis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-20437-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20437-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Pham, An T. & Craig, Michael T., 2023. "Cost and deployment consequences of advanced planning for negative emissions with direct air capture in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    2. Selene Cobo & Ángel Galán-Martín & Victor Tulus & Mark A. J. Huijbregts & Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez, 2022. "Human and planetary health implications of negative emissions technologies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Philipp Günther & Felix Ekardt, 2022. "Human Rights and Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal: Potential Limits to BECCS and DACCS Deployment," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-29, November.
    4. Adrian Odenweller & Falko Ueckerdt & Gregory F. Nemet & Miha Jensterle & Gunnar Luderer, 2022. "Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 854-865, September.
    5. Chen, Siyuan & Liu, Jiangfeng & Zhang, Qi & Teng, Fei & McLellan, Benjamin C., 2022. "A critical review on deployment planning and risk analysis of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) toward carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Sara Yasemi & Yasin Khalili & Ali Sanati & Mohammadreza Bagheri, 2023. "Carbon Capture and Storage: Application in the Oil and Gas Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-32, October.
    7. Shuohua Liu & Xiao Zhang & Yifan Zhou & Shunbo Yao, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Carbon Sink Dynamics at County Scale: A Case Study of Shaanxi Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Arwa, Erick O. & Schell, Kristen R., 2024. "Batteries or silos: Optimizing storage capacity in direct air capture plants to maximize renewable energy use," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    9. Hanwoong Kim & Haewon McJeon & Dawoon Jung & Hanju Lee & Candelaria Bergero & Jiyong Eom, 2021. "Integrated Assessment Modeling of Korea 2050 Carbon Neutrality Technology Pathways," Papers 2111.01598, arXiv.org.
    10. Benjamin K. Sovacool & Chad M. Baum & Sean Low, 2022. "Determining our climate policy future: expert opinions about negative emissions and solar radiation management pathways," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 1-50, December.
    11. Ángel Galán-Martín & Daniel Vázquez & Selene Cobo & Niall Dowell & José Antonio Caballero & Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez, 2021. "Delaying carbon dioxide removal in the European Union puts climate targets at risk," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Gu, Meng & Guo, Qi & Lu, Shiliang, 2022. "Feasibility analysis of energy-saving potential of the underground ice rink using spectrum splitting sunshade technology," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 571-579.
    13. Giorgio Tripodi & Francesco Lamperti & Roberto Mavilia & Andrea Mina & Francesca Chiaromonte & Fabrizio Lillo, 2022. "Quantifying knowledge spillovers from advances in negative emissions technologies," LEM Papers Series 2022/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    14. Günther, Philipp & Ekardt, Felix, 2022. "Human Rights and Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal: Potential Limits to BECCS and DACCS Deployment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(12), pages 1-29.
    15. Enric Prats-Salvado & Nathalie Monnerie & Christian Sattler, 2021. "Synergies between Direct Air Capture Technologies and Solar Thermochemical Cycles in the Production of Methanol," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.

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