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Excess forest mortality is consistently linked to drought across Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Cornelius Senf

    (Technical University of Munich)

  • Allan Buras

    (Technical University of Munich)

  • Christian S. Zang

    (Technical University of Munich)

  • Anja Rammig

    (Technical University of Munich)

  • Rupert Seidl

    (Technical University of Munich
    Berchtesgaden National Park)

Abstract

Pulses of tree mortality caused by drought have been reported recently in forests around the globe, but large-scale quantitative evidence is lacking for Europe. Analyzing high-resolution annual satellite-based canopy mortality maps from 1987 to 2016 we here show that excess forest mortality (i.e., canopy mortality exceeding the long-term mortality trend) is significantly related to drought across continental Europe. The relationship between water availability and mortality showed threshold behavior, with excess mortality increasing steeply when the integrated climatic water balance from March to July fell below −1.6 standard deviations of its long-term average. For −3.0 standard deviations the probability of excess canopy mortality was 91.6% (83.8–97.5%). Overall, drought caused approximately 500,000 ha of excess forest mortality between 1987 and 2016 in Europe. We here provide evidence that drought is an important driver of tree mortality at the continental scale, and suggest that a future increase in drought could trigger widespread tree mortality in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornelius Senf & Allan Buras & Christian S. Zang & Anja Rammig & Rupert Seidl, 2020. "Excess forest mortality is consistently linked to drought across Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-19924-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19924-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Noë & Karl-Heinz Erb & Sarah Matej & Andreas Magerl & Manan Bhan & Simone Gingrich, 2021. "Altered growth conditions more than reforestation counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions 1990–2020," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Dennis Metze & Jörg Schnecker & Alberto Canarini & Lucia Fuchslueger & Benjamin J. Koch & Bram W. Stone & Bruce A. Hungate & Bela Hausmann & Hannes Schmidt & Andreas Schaumberger & Michael Bahn & Chri, 2023. "Microbial growth under drought is confined to distinct taxa and modified by potential future climate conditions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Martin Brandt & Dimitri Gominski & Florian Reiner & Ankit Kariryaa & Venkanna Babu Guthula & Philippe Ciais & Xiaoye Tong & Wenmin Zhang & Dhanapal Govindarajulu & Daniel Ortiz-Gonzalo & Rasmus Fensho, 2024. "Severe decline in large farmland trees in India over the past decade," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 860-868, July.
    4. Thomas, J. & Brunette, M. & Leblois, A., 2022. "The determinants of adapting forest management practices to climate change: Lessons from a survey of French private forest owners," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Yiping Wu & Xiaowei Yin & Guoyi Zhou & L. Adrian Bruijnzeel & Aiguo Dai & Fan Wang & Pierre Gentine & Guangchuang Zhang & Yanni Song & Decheng Zhou, 2024. "Rising rainfall intensity induces spatially divergent hydrological changes within a large river basin," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Yan Cheng & Stefan Oehmcke & Martin Brandt & Lisa Rosenthal & Adrian Das & Anton Vrieling & Sassan Saatchi & Fabien Wagner & Maurice Mugabowindekwe & Wim Verbruggen & Claus Beier & Stéphanie Horion, 2024. "Scattered tree death contributes to substantial forest loss in California," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Bastit, Félix & Brunette, Marielle & Montagné-Huck, Claire, 2023. "Pests, wind and fire: A multi-hazard risk review for natural disturbances in forests," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    8. Holtmann, Anne & Huth, Andreas & Bohn, Friedrich & Fischer, Rico, 2024. "Assessing the impact of multi-year droughts on German forests in the context of increased tree mortality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    9. Andreas Floren & Peter J. Horchler & Tobias Müller, 2022. "The Impact of the Neophyte Tree Fraxinus pennsylvanica [Marshall] on Beetle Diversity under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-13, February.
    10. Roitsch, Dennis & Abruscato, Silvia & Lovrić, Marko & Lindner, Marcus & Orazio, Christophe & Winkel, Georg, 2023. "Close-to-nature forestry and intensive forestry – Two response patterns of forestry professionals towards climate change adaptation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    11. Monika Vejpustková & Tomáš Čihák & Petr Fišer, 2023. "The increasing drought sensitivity of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) is evident in the last two decades," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(2), pages 67-79.

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