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Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

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  • Juan Yang

    (Fudan University)

  • Xinhua Chen

    (Fudan University)

  • Xiaowei Deng

    (Fudan University)

  • Zhiyuan Chen

    (Fudan University)

  • Hui Gong

    (Fudan University)

  • Han Yan

    (Fudan University)

  • Qianhui Wu

    (Fudan University)

  • Huilin Shi

    (Fudan University)

  • Shengjie Lai

    (Fudan University
    University of Southampton)

  • Marco Ajelli

    (Indiana University School of Public Health
    Northeastern University)

  • Cecile Viboud

    (National Institutes of Health)

  • Prof Hongjie Yu

    (Fudan University)

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China, where the initial wave of intense community transmissions was cut short by interventions. Using multiple data sources, here we estimate the disease burden and clinical severity by age of COVID-19 in Wuhan from December 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. Our estimates account for the sensitivity of the laboratory assays, prospective community screenings, and healthcare seeking behaviors. Rates of symptomatic cases, medical consultations, hospitalizations and deaths were estimated at 796 (95% CI: 703–977), 489 (472–509), 370 (358–384), and 36.2 (35.0–37.3) per 100,000 persons, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan had a higher burden than the 2009 influenza pandemic or seasonal influenza in terms of hospitalization and mortality rates, and clinical severity was similar to that of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Our comparison puts the COVID-19 pandemic into context and could be helpful to guide intervention strategies and preparedness for the potential resurgence of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Yang & Xinhua Chen & Xiaowei Deng & Zhiyuan Chen & Hui Gong & Han Yan & Qianhui Wu & Huilin Shi & Shengjie Lai & Marco Ajelli & Cecile Viboud & Prof Hongjie Yu, 2020. "Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-19238-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19238-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Yang & Valentina Marziano & Xiaowei Deng & Giorgio Guzzetta & Juanjuan Zhang & Filippo Trentini & Jun Cai & Piero Poletti & Wen Zheng & Wei Wang & Qianhui Wu & Zeyao Zhao & Kaige Dong & Guangjie , 2021. "Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 1009-1020, August.
    2. Johnston H. C. Wong & Ghee W. Ho, 2022. "Shielding without a Shield—Older People under COVID-19: A Comparison of Four Cities," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-35, October.
    3. Fulvio Adorni & Nithiya Jesuthasan & Elena Perdixi & Aleksandra Sojic & Andrea Giacomelli & Marianna Noale & Caterina Trevisan & Michela Franchini & Stefania Pieroni & Liliana Cori & Claudio Maria Mas, 2022. "Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Italy Using Real-World Data: Methodology and Cohort Description of the Second Phase of Web-Based EPICOVID19 Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Liangdong Lu & Jia Xu & Jiuchang Wei & F. LeRon Shults & Xing Lin Feng, 2024. "The role of emotion and social connection during the COVID-19 pandemic phase transitions: a cross-cultural comparison of China and the United States," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Wenpei Zhang & Shankuo Xiong & Yelianghui Zheng & Jinnan Wu, 2022. "Response Efficacy and Self-Efficacy Mediated the Relationship between Perceived Threat and Psychic Anxiety among College Students in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-11, February.
    6. Marina Giachino & Camille Beatrice G. Valera & Sabina Rodriguez Velásquez & Muriel Anna Dohrendorf-Wyss & Liudmila Rozanova & Antoine Flahault, 2020. "Understanding the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Real-Time Analysis of Switzerland’s First Wave," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-17, November.

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