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A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Rebecca M. Varney

    (University of Exeter)

  • Sarah E. Chadburn

    (University of Exeter)

  • Pierre Friedlingstein

    (University of Exeter
    LMD/IPSL, ENS, PSL Université, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Sorbonne Université, CNRS)

  • Eleanor J. Burke

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Charles D. Koven

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Gustaf Hugelius

    (Stockholm University)

  • Peter M. Cox

    (University of Exeter)

Abstract

Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔCs,τ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (−196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔCs,τ, which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔCs,τ at 2 °C to −232 ± 52 PgC.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca M. Varney & Sarah E. Chadburn & Pierre Friedlingstein & Eleanor J. Burke & Charles D. Koven & Gustaf Hugelius & Peter M. Cox, 2020. "A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-19208-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19208-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Jessica Stubenrauch & Beatrice Garske & Felix Ekardt & Katharina Hagemann, 2022. "European Forest Governance: Status Quo and Optimising Options with Regard to the Paris Climate Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-35, April.
    2. Shuai Ren & Tao Wang & Bertrand Guenet & Dan Liu & Yingfang Cao & Jinzhi Ding & Pete Smith & Shilong Piao, 2024. "Projected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Irina Melnikova & Tokuta Yokohata & Akihiko Ito & Kazuya Nishina & Kaoru Tachiiri & Hideo Shiogama, 2024. "Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Callesen, I. & Magnussen, A., 2021. "TransparC2U–A two-pool, pedology oriented forest soil carbon simulation model aimed at user investigations of multiple uncertainties," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 453(C).

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