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Neglecting uncertainties biases house-elevation decisions to manage riverine flood risks

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  • Mahkameh Zarekarizi

    (The Pennsylvania State University
    Jupiter Intelligence)

  • Vivek Srikrishnan

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Klaus Keller

    (The Pennsylvania State University
    The Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

Homeowners around the world elevate houses to manage flood risks. Deciding how high to elevate a house poses a nontrivial decision problem. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommends elevating existing houses to the Base Flood Elevation (the elevation of the 100-year flood) plus a freeboard. This recommendation neglects many uncertainties. Here we analyze a case-study of riverine flood risk management using a multi-objective robust decision-making framework in the face of deep uncertainties. While the quantitative results are location-specific, the approach and overall insights are generalizable. We find strong interactions between the economic, engineering, and Earth science uncertainties, illustrating the need for expanding on previous integrated analyses to further understand the nature and strength of these connections. Considering deep uncertainties surrounding flood hazards, the discount rate, the house lifetime, and the fragility can increase the economically optimal house elevation to values well above FEMA’s recommendation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahkameh Zarekarizi & Vivek Srikrishnan & Klaus Keller, 2020. "Neglecting uncertainties biases house-elevation decisions to manage riverine flood risks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-19188-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19188-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Evan Herrnstadt & Jared Jageler, 2024. "Flood Damage Avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations: Working Paper 2024-03," Working Papers 58168, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Ayat Al Assi & Rubayet Bin Mostafiz & Carol J. Friedland & Robert V. Rohli & Arash Taghinezhad & Md Adilur Rahim, 2023. "Cost-effectiveness of federal CDBG-DR Road Home Program mitigation assistance in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1291-1319, June.
    3. Ishfaq Hussain Malik, 2022. "Spatial dimension of impact, relief, and rescue of the 2014 flood in Kashmir Valley," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1911-1929, February.

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