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Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice

Author

Listed:
  • Nico Wunderling

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam
    Humboldt University of Berlin)

  • Matteo Willeit

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Jonathan F. Donges

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Stockholm University)

  • Ricarda Winkelmann

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam)

Abstract

Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Wunderling & Matteo Willeit & Jonathan F. Donges & Ricarda Winkelmann, 2020. "Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18934-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Tessa Möller & Annika Ernest Högner & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Samuel Bien & Niklas H. Kitzmann & Robin D. Lamboll & Joeri Rogelj & Jonathan F. Donges & Johan Rockström & Nico Wunderling, 2024. "Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Wenchao Zhang & Haibin Wu & Jun Cheng & Junyan Geng & Qin Li & Yong Sun & Yanyan Yu & Huayu Lu & Zhengtang Guo, 2022. "Holocene seasonal temperature evolution and spatial variability over the Northern Hemisphere landmass," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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