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Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling

Author

Listed:
  • Huanjiong Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Chaoyang Wu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL-LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Josep Peñuelas

    (CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra
    CREAF, Cerdanyola del Valles)

  • Junhu Dai

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yongshuo Fu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Quansheng Ge

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Huanjiong Wang & Chaoyang Wu & Philippe Ciais & Josep Peñuelas & Junhu Dai & Yongshuo Fu & Quansheng Ge, 2020. "Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18743-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18743-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Rui Yin & Wenkuan Qin & Xudong Wang & Dong Xie & Hao Wang & Hongyang Zhao & Zhenhua Zhang & Jin-Sheng He & Martin Schädler & Paul Kardol & Nico Eisenhauer & Biao Zhu, 2023. "Experimental warming causes mismatches in alpine plant-microbe-fauna phenology," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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