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Climate econometric models indicate solar geoengineering would reduce inter-country income inequality

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Listed:
  • Anthony R. Harding

    (University of California
    Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Katharine Ricke

    (University of California
    University of California)

  • Daniel Heyen

    (ETH Zürich)

  • Douglas G. MacMartin

    (Cornell University)

  • Juan Moreno-Cruz

    (University of Waterloo)

Abstract

Exploring heterogeneity in the economic impacts of solar geoengineering is a fundamental step towards understanding the risk tradeoff associated with a geoengineering option. To evaluate impacts of solar geoengineering and greenhouse gas-driven climate change on equal terms, we apply macroeconomic impact models that have been widely applied to climate change impacts assessment. Combining historical evidence with climate simulations of mean annual temperature and precipitation, we project socio-economic outcomes under high anthropogenic emissions for stylized climate scenarios in which global temperatures are stabilized or over-cooled by blocking solar radiation. We find impacts of climate changes on global GDP-per-capita by the end of the century are temperature-driven, highly dispersed, and model dependent. Across all model specifications, however, income inequality between countries is lower with solar geoengineering. Consistent reduction in inter-country inequality can inform discussions of the distribution of impacts of solar geoengineering, a topic of concern in geoengineering ethics and governance debates.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony R. Harding & Katharine Ricke & Daniel Heyen & Douglas G. MacMartin & Juan Moreno-Cruz, 2020. "Climate econometric models indicate solar geoengineering would reduce inter-country income inequality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-13957-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13957-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesse L. Reynolds, 2021. "Is solar geoengineering ungovernable? A critical assessment of governance challenges identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    2. Harding, Anthony & Keith, David & Yang, Wenchang & Vecchi, Gabriel, 2023. "Impact of Solar Geoengineering on Temperature-Attributable Mortality," RFF Working Paper Series 23-23, Resources for the Future.
    3. Eszter Baranyai & Ádám Banai, 2022. "Heat projections and mortgage characteristics: evidence from the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Zhang, Yixiang & Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Social trust contributes to the reduction of urban carbon dioxide emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).

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