IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v10y2019i1d10.1038_s41467-019-13717-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions

Author

Listed:
  • S. S. Dhomse

    (University of Leeds
    University of Leeds)

  • W. Feng

    (University of Leeds
    University of Leeds)

  • S. A. Montzka

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA))

  • R. Hossaini

    (Lancaster University)

  • J. Keeble

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Cambridge)

  • J. A. Pyle

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Cambridge)

  • J. S. Daniel

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA))

  • M. P. Chipperfield

    (University of Leeds
    University of Leeds)

Abstract

The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr−1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr−1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade.

Suggested Citation

  • S. S. Dhomse & W. Feng & S. A. Montzka & R. Hossaini & J. Keeble & J. A. Pyle & J. S. Daniel & M. P. Chipperfield, 2019. "Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-13717-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13717-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13717-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-019-13717-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Minde An & Luke M. Western & Daniel Say & Liqu Chen & Tom Claxton & Anita L. Ganesan & Ryan Hossaini & Paul B. Krummel & Alistair J. Manning & Jens Mühle & Simon O’Doherty & Ronald G. Prinn & Ray F. W, 2021. "Rapid increase in dichloromethane emissions from China inferred through atmospheric observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-13717-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.