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Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Author

Listed:
  • Viktoriia Radchuk

    (Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW))

  • Thomas Reed

    (University College Cork)

  • Céline Teplitsky

    (CNRS – Université de Montpellier – Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier – EPHE)

  • Martijn Pol

    (Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW))

  • Anne Charmantier

    (CNRS – Université de Montpellier – Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier – EPHE)

  • Christopher Hassall

    (University of Leeds)

  • Peter Adamík

    (Palacký University)

  • Frank Adriaensen

    (University of Antwerp)

  • Markus P. Ahola

    (Swedish Museum of Natural History)

  • Peter Arcese

    (Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences)

  • Jesús Miguel Avilés

    (Experimental Station of Arid Zones (EEZA-CSIC))

  • Javier Balbontin

    (University of Seville)

  • Karl S. Berg

    (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley)

  • Antoni Borras

    (Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona)

  • Sarah Burthe

    (Bush Estate)

  • Jean Clobert

    (CNRS and University Paul Sabatier)

  • Nina Dehnhard

    (University of Antwerp)

  • Florentino Lope

    (University of Extremadura)

  • André A. Dhondt

    (Cornell University)

  • Niels J. Dingemanse

    (Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich)

  • Hideyuki Doi

    (University of Hyogo)

  • Tapio Eeva

    (University of Turku)

  • Joerns Fickel

    (Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW)
    Potsdam University)

  • Iolanda Filella

    (CREAF
    Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB)

  • Frode Fossøy

    (Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
    Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))

  • Anne E. Goodenough

    (University of Gloucestershire)

  • Stephen J. G. Hall

    (Estonian University of Life Sciences)

  • Bengt Hansson

    (Lund University)

  • Michael Harris

    (Bush Estate)

  • Dennis Hasselquist

    (Lund University)

  • Thomas Hickler

    (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center (BiK-F))

  • Jasmin Joshi

    (University of Potsdam
    HSR Hochschule für Technik)

  • Heather Kharouba

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Juan Gabriel Martínez

    (Universidad de Granada)

  • Jean-Baptiste Mihoub

    (Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle)

  • James A. Mills

    (10527A Skyline Drive
    3 Miromiro Drive)

  • Mercedes Molina-Morales

    (University of Extremadura)

  • Arne Moksnes

    (Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB)

  • Arpat Ozgul

    (University of Zurich)

  • Deseada Parejo

    (University of Extremadura)

  • Philippe Pilard

    (LPO Mission Rapaces)

  • Maud Poisbleau

    (University of Antwerp)

  • Francois Rousset

    (Université de Montpellier)

  • Mark-Oliver Rödel

    (Museum für Naturkunde)

  • David Scott

    (University of Georgia)

  • Juan Carlos Senar

    (Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona)

  • Constanti Stefanescu

    (CREAF
    Natural History Museum of Granollers)

  • Bård G. Stokke

    (Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
    Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA))

  • Tamotsu Kusano

    (Tokyo Metropolitan University)

  • Maja Tarka

    (Lund University)

  • Corey E. Tarwater

    (University of Wyoming)

  • Kirsten Thonicke

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Jack Thorley

    (Imperial College London
    University of Cambridge)

  • Andreas Wilting

    (Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW))

  • Piotr Tryjanowski

    (Poznan University of Life Sciences)

  • Juha Merilä

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Ben C. Sheldon

    (University of Oxford)

  • Anders Pape Møller

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Erik Matthysen

    (University of Antwerp)

  • Fredric Janzen

    (Iowa State University)

  • F. Stephen Dobson

    (Auburn University)

  • Marcel E. Visser

    (Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW))

  • Steven R. Beissinger

    (University of California)

  • Alexandre Courtiol

    (Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW))

  • Stephanie Kramer-Schadt

    (Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW)
    Technische Universität Berlin)

Abstract

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

Suggested Citation

  • Viktoriia Radchuk & Thomas Reed & Céline Teplitsky & Martijn Pol & Anne Charmantier & Christopher Hassall & Peter Adamík & Frank Adriaensen & Markus P. Ahola & Peter Arcese & Jesús Miguel Avilés & Jav, 2019. "Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-10924-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4
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    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liam D. Bailey & Martijn Pol & Frank Adriaensen & Aneta Arct & Emilio Barba & Paul E. Bellamy & Suzanne Bonamour & Jean-Charles Bouvier & Malcolm D. Burgess & Anne Charmantier & Camillo Cusimano & Bla, 2022. "Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Loke Schmalensee & Pauline Caillault & Katrín Hulda Gunnarsdóttir & Karl Gotthard & Philipp Lehmann, 2023. "Seasonal specialization drives divergent population dynamics in two closely related butterflies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Conor C. Taff & J. Ryan. Shipley, 2023. "Inconsistent shifts in warming and temperature variability are linked to reduced avian fitness," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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