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Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery

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Listed:
  • Peter Klimek

    (Medical University of Vienna
    Complexity Science Hub Vienna)

  • Sebastian Poledna

    (Complexity Science Hub Vienna
    IIASA)

  • Stefan Thurner

    (Medical University of Vienna
    Complexity Science Hub Vienna
    IIASA
    Santa Fe Institute)

Abstract

Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply−demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks. Here we focus on resilience as a nonequilibrium property of networked production systems and develop a linear response theory for input−output economics. By calibrating the framework to data from 56 industrial sectors in 43 countries between 2000 and 2014, we find that the susceptibility of individual industrial sectors to economic shocks varies greatly across countries, sectors, and time. We show that susceptibility-based growth predictions that take sector- and country-specific recovery into account, outperform—by far—standard econometric models. Our results are analytically rigorous, empirically testable, and flexible enough to address policy-relevant scenarios. We illustrate the latter by estimating the impact of recently imposed tariffs on US imports (steel and aluminum) on specific sectors across European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Klimek & Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2019. "Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-09357-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09357-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesse M. Keenan & Benjamin D. Trump & William Hynes & Igor Linkov, 2021. "Exploring the Convergence of Resilience Processes and Sustainable Outcomes in Post-COVID, Post-Glasgow Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-12, December.
    2. A. Jovanović & P. Klimek & O. Renn & R. Schneider & K. Øien & J. Brown & M. DiGennaro & Y. Liu & V. Pfau & M. Jelić & T. Rosen & B. Caillard & S. Chakravarty & P. Chhantyal, 2020. "Assessing resilience of healthcare infrastructure exposed to COVID-19: emerging risks, resilience indicators, interdependencies and international standards," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 252-286, June.
    3. Georgios Angelidis & Nikos C. Varsakelis, 2023. "Economic Shock Transmission through Global Value Chains: An Assessment using Network Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(3), pages 111-128, August.
    4. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Godin, Antoine & Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Trsek, Stefan, 2021. "Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Kirsten S. Wiebe & Vibeke S. Norstebø & Fabian R. Aponte & Moana S. Simas & Tina Andersen & Gerardo A. Perez-Valdes, 2023. "Circular Economy and the triple bottom line in Norway," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Mitja Steinbacher & Matthias Raddant & Fariba Karimi & Eva Camacho Cuena & Simone Alfarano & Giulia Iori & Thomas Lux, 2021. "Advances in the agent-based modeling of economic and social behavior," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-24, July.
    7. Fessina, Massimiliano & Zaccaria, Andrea & Cimini, Giulio & Squartini, Tiziano, 2024. "Pattern-detection in the global automotive industry: A manufacturer-supplier-product network analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    8. Elias Giannakis & Theofanis P. Mamuneas, 2022. "Labour productivity and regional labour markets resilience in Europe," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(3), pages 691-712, June.
    9. Zhang, Bowen & Rees, Griffith & Solomon, Guy & Wilson, Alan, 2023. "Input-output analytics for urban systems: explorations in policy and planning," SocArXiv sruq7, Center for Open Science.
    10. Wang, Xueli & Wang, Lei & Zhang, Xuerong & Fan, Fei, 2022. "The spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 in China and its impact on urban economic resilience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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