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Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests

Author

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  • Victor Danneyrolles

    (Université du Québec à Rimouski
    Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
    Centre d’étude de la forêt (CEF))

  • Sébastien Dupuis

    (Université du Québec à Rimouski)

  • Gabriel Fortin

    (Université du Québec à Rimouski)

  • Marie Leroyer

    (Université du Québec à Rimouski)

  • André Römer

    (Université du Québec à Rimouski)

  • Raphaële Terrail

    (Université du Québec à Rimouski)

  • Mark Vellend

    (Centre d’étude de la forêt (CEF)
    Université de Sherbrooke)

  • Yan Boucher

    (Centre d’étude de la forêt (CEF)
    Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs)

  • Jason Laflamme

    (Centre d’étude de la forêt (CEF)
    Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs)

  • Yves Bergeron

    (Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
    Centre d’étude de la forêt (CEF))

  • Dominique Arseneault

    (Université du Québec à Rimouski
    Centre d’étude de la forêt (CEF))

Abstract

Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km2) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Danneyrolles & Sébastien Dupuis & Gabriel Fortin & Marie Leroyer & André Römer & Raphaële Terrail & Mark Vellend & Yan Boucher & Jason Laflamme & Yves Bergeron & Dominique Arseneault, 2019. "Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-09265-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09265-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Hassan Shabbir & Jiquan Zhang & James D Johnston & Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie & James A Lutz & Xingpeng Liu, 2020. "Predicting the influence of climate on grassland area burned in Xilingol, China with dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Yi Cheng & Hui Liu & Dongmei Chen & Haimeng Liu, 2022. "Human Activity Intensity and Its Spatial-Temporal Evolution in China’s Border Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Toraño Caicoya, Astor & Vergarechea, Marta & Blattert, Clemens & Klein, Julian & Eyvindson, Kyle & Burgas, Daniel & Snäll, Tord & Mönkkönen, Mikko & Astrup, Rasmus & Di Fulvio, Fulvio & Forsell, Nikla, 2023. "What drives forest multifunctionality in central and northern Europe? Exploring the interplay of management, climate, and policies," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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