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Societal decisions about climate mitigation will have dramatic impacts on eutrophication in the 21st century

Author

Listed:
  • E. Sinha

    (Carnegie Institution for Science
    Stanford University
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • A. M. Michalak

    (Carnegie Institution for Science
    Stanford University)

  • K. V. Calvin

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • P. J. Lawrence

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

Excessive nitrogen runoff leads to degraded water quality, harming human and ecosystem health. We examine the impact of changes in land use and land management for six combinations of socioeconomic pathways and climate outcomes, and find that societal choices will substantially impact riverine total nitrogen loading (+54% to −7%) for the continental United States by the end of the century. Regional impacts will be even larger. Increased loading is possible for both high emission and low emission pathways, due to increased food and biofuel demand, respectively. Some pathways, however, suggest that limiting climate change and eutrophication can be achieved concurrently. Precipitation changes will further exacerbate loading, resulting in a net increase of 1 to 68%. Globally, increases in cropland area and agricultural intensification will likely impact vast portions of Asia. Societal and climate trends must therefore both be considered in designing strategies for managing inland and coastal water quality.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Sinha & A. M. Michalak & K. V. Calvin & P. J. Lawrence, 2019. "Societal decisions about climate mitigation will have dramatic impacts on eutrophication in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-08884-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08884-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Minjin Lee & Charles A. Stock & Elena Shevliakova & Sergey Malyshev & Maureen Beaudor & Nicolas Vuichard, 2024. "Uneven consequences of global climate mitigation pathways on regional water quality in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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