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Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Author

Listed:
  • Joao Morim

    (Griffith University
    Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans and Atmosphere
    Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)

  • Mark Hemer

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Xiaolan L. Wang

    (Climate Research Division)

  • Nick Cartwright

    (Griffith University)

  • Claire Trenham

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Alvaro Semedo

    (IHE-Delft, Department of Water Science and Engineering
    Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon)

  • Ian Young

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Lucy Bricheno

    (National Oceanographic Centre)

  • Paula Camus

    (Universidad de Cantabria)

  • Mercè Casas-Prat

    (Climate Research Division)

  • Li Erikson

    (Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)

  • Lorenzo Mentaschi

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Nobuhito Mori

    (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)

  • Tomoya Shimura

    (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)

  • Ben Timmermans

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Ole Aarnes

    (Norwegian Meteorological Institute)

  • Øyvind Breivik

    (Norwegian Meteorological Institute
    Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen)

  • Arno Behrens

    (Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research)

  • Mikhail Dobrynin

    (Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg)

  • Melisa Menendez

    (Universidad de Cantabria)

  • Joanna Staneva

    (Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research)

  • Michael Wehner

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Judith Wolf

    (National Oceanographic Centre)

  • Bahareh Kamranzad

    (Kyoto University)

  • Adrean Webb

    (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)

  • Justin Stopa

    (University of Hawai’i at Mānoa)

  • Fernando Andutta

    (Griffith University)

Abstract

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao Morim & Mark Hemer & Xiaolan L. Wang & Nick Cartwright & Claire Trenham & Alvaro Semedo & Ian Young & Lucy Bricheno & Paula Camus & Mercè Casas-Prat & Li Erikson & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Nobuhito Mo, 2019. "Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(9), pages 711-718, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0542-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. P. A. Reid & R. A. Massom, 2022. "Change and variability in Antarctic coastal exposure, 1979–2020," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Chloe Leach & Ben S. Hague & David M. Kennedy & Rafael C. Carvalho & Daniel Ierodiaconou, 2021. "Identifying oceanographic conditions conducive to coastal impacts on temperate open coastal beaches," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 499-521, October.
    3. Lira-Loarca, Andrea & Ferrari, Francesco & Mazzino, Andrea & Besio, Giovanni, 2021. "Future wind and wave energy resources and exploitability in the Mediterranean Sea by 2100," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    4. Neill, Simon P., 2024. "Wave resource characterization and co-location with offshore wind in the Irish Sea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    5. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Tong, H.W., 2023. "Mapping future offshore wind resources in the South China Sea under climate change by regional climate modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Jian Shi & Xiangbo Feng & Ralf Toumi & Chi Zhang & Kevin I. Hodges & Aifeng Tao & Wei Zhang & Jinhai Zheng, 2024. "Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Liu, Jin & Li, Rui & Li, Shuo & Meucci, Alberto & Young, Ian R., 2024. "Increasing wave power due to global climate change and intensification of Antarctic Oscillation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    8. Liu, Jin & Meucci, Alberto & Liu, Qingxiang & Babanin, Alexander V. & Ierodiaconou, Daniel & Xu, Xingkun & Young, Ian R., 2023. "A high-resolution wave energy assessment of south-east Australia based on a 40-year hindcast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

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