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An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback

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  • Chad W. Thackeray

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Alex Hall

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

Arctic sea ice has decreased substantially over recent decades, a trend projected to continue. Shrinking ice reduces surface albedo, leading to greater surface solar absorption, thus amplifying warming and driving further melt. This sea-ice albedo feedback (SIAF) is a key driver of Arctic climate change and an important uncertainty source in climate model projections. Using an ensemble of models, we demonstrate an emergent relationship between future SIAF and an observable version of SIAF in the current climate’s seasonal cycle. This relationship is robust in constraining SIAF over the coming decades (Pearson’s r = 0.76), and then it degrades. The degradation occurs because some models begin producing ice-free conditions, signalling a transition to a new ice regime. The relationship is strengthened when models with unrealistically thin historical ice are excluded. Because of this tight relationship, reducing model errors in the current climate’s seasonal SIAF and ice thickness can narrow SIAF spread under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad W. Thackeray & Alex Hall, 2019. "An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(12), pages 972-978, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0619-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0619-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2022. "Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 520-534.
    2. Wenchao Zhang & Haibin Wu & Jun Cheng & Junyan Geng & Qin Li & Yong Sun & Yanyan Yu & Huayu Lu & Zhengtang Guo, 2022. "Holocene seasonal temperature evolution and spatial variability over the Northern Hemisphere landmass," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Rashit M. Hantemirov & Christophe Corona & Sébastien Guillet & Stepan G. Shiyatov & Markus Stoffel & Timothy J. Osborn & Thomas M. Melvin & Ludmila A. Gorlanova & Vladimir V. Kukarskih & Alexander Y. , 2022. "Current Siberian heating is unprecedented during the past seven millennia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Bipandeep Sharma, 2021. "‘De-Securitising the Arctic’ in Climate Change: An Indian Perspective," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 77(4), pages 622-641, December.
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections," PIER Working Paper Archive 19-021, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Yeon-Hee Kim & Seung-Ki Min & Nathan P. Gillett & Dirk Notz & Elizaveta Malinina, 2023. "Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Wenyu Zhou & L. Ruby Leung & Shang-Ping Xie & Jian Lu, 2024. "An analytic theory for the degree of Arctic Amplification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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