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Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions

Author

Listed:
  • Drew Shindell

    (Duke University
    Duke University)

  • Greg Faluvegi

    (Columbia University and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Karl Seltzer

    (Duke University)

  • Cary Shindell

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions 1 . Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations 2 . A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits3,4. However, 2 °C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 °C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a ‘standard’ 2 °C scenario to 1.5 °C or could achieve 2 °C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 ± 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ~40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Drew Shindell & Greg Faluvegi & Karl Seltzer & Cary Shindell, 2018. "Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(4), pages 291-295, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0108-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0108-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Vajjarapu, Harsha & Verma, Ashish, 2022. "Understanding the mitigation potential of sustainable urban transport measures across income and gender groups," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Katarzyna Sanak-Kosmowska & Jan W. Wiktor, 2021. "The Morphology and Differentiation of the Content of International Debate on Renewable Energy. A Bibliometric Analysis of Web of Science, Scopus, and Twitter," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, October.
    3. He, Wenjian & Cheng, Yu & Lin, Ying & Zhang, Hongxiao, 2022. "Microeconomic effects of designating National Forest Cities: Evidence from China's publicly traded manufacturing companies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Sugiawan, Yogi & Kurniawan, Robi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2019. "Are carbon dioxide emission reductions compatible with sustainable well-being?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1-11.
    5. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2022. "Global and regional changes in carbon dioxide emissions: 1970–2019," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P1).
    6. Mingxu Liu & Yu Song & Hitoshi Matsui & Fang Shang & Ling Kang & Xuhui Cai & Hongsheng Zhang & Tong Zhu, 2024. "Enhanced atmospheric oxidation toward carbon neutrality reduces methane’s climate forcing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Peng, Benhong & Zhao, Yinyin & Elahi, Ehsan & Wan, Anxia, 2023. "Can third-party market cooperation solve the dilemma of emissions reduction? A case study of energy investment project conflict analysis in the context of carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    8. Castells-Quintana, David & Dienesch, Elisa & Krause, Melanie, 2021. "Air pollution in an urban world: A global view on density, cities and emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Lucas Bretschger & Evgenij Komarov, 2023. "All Inclusive Climate Policy in a Growing Economy: The Role of Human Health," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 23/384, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    10. Jean C. Bikomeye & Caitlin S. Rublee & Kirsten M. M. Beyer, 2021. "Positive Externalities of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Human Health: A Review and Conceptual Framework for Public Health Research," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-29, March.
    11. Chang, Shiyan & Yang, Xi & Zheng, Haotian & Wang, Shuxiao & Zhang, Xiliang, 2020. "Air quality and health co-benefits of China's national emission trading system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    12. Donner, Herman & Kulander, Maria, 2024. "Analyzing the relationship between housing and social engagement among the elderly," Working Paper Series 24/1, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    13. Zhang, Wen-Wen & Zhao, Bin & Ding, Dian & Sharp, Basil & Gu, Yu & Xu, Shi-Chun & Xing, Jia & Wang, Shu-Xiao & Liou, Kuo-Nan & Rao, Lan-Lan, 2021. "Co-benefits of subnationally differentiated carbon pricing policies in China: Alleviation of heavy PM2.5 pollution and improvement in environmental equity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    14. Samuel Simon Araya & Vincenzo Liso & Xiaoti Cui & Na Li & Jimin Zhu & Simon Lennart Sahlin & Søren Højgaard Jensen & Mads Pagh Nielsen & Søren Knudsen Kær, 2020. "A Review of The Methanol Economy: The Fuel Cell Route," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-32, January.

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