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The Paris Agreement zero-emissions goal is not always consistent with the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature targets

Author

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  • Katsumasa Tanaka

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • Brian C. O’Neill

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

Abstract

The Paris Agreement stipulates that global warming be stabilized at well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with aims to further constrain this warming to 1.5 °C. However, it also calls for reducing net anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to zero during the second half of this century. Here, we use a reduced-form integrated assessment model to examine the consistency between temperature- and emission-based targets. We find that net zero GHG emissions are not necessarily required to remain below 1.5 °C or 2 °C, assuming either target can be achieved without overshoot. With overshoot, however, the emissions goal is consistent with the temperature targets, and substantial negative emissions are associated with reducing warming after it peaks. Temperature targets are put at risk by late achievement of emissions goals and the use of some GHG emission metrics. Refinement of Paris Agreement emissions goals should include a focus on net zero CO2—not GHG—emissions, achieved early in the second half of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsumasa Tanaka & Brian C. O’Neill, 2018. "The Paris Agreement zero-emissions goal is not always consistent with the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(4), pages 319-324, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0097-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0097-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Morgan R. Edwards & Jessika E. Trancik, 2022. "Consequences of equivalency metric design for energy transitions and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-27, November.
    2. Felix Ekardt & Paula Roos & Marie Bärenwaldt & Lea Nesselhauf, 2023. "Energy Charter Treaty: Towards a New Interpretation in the Light of Paris Agreement and Human Rights," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Hasan Huseyin Coban & Wojciech Lewicki & Radosław Miśkiewicz & Wojciech Drożdż, 2022. "The Economic Dimension of Using the Integration of Highway Sound Screens with Solar Panels in the Process of Generating Green Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Meier, Felix & Rickels, Wilfried & Quaas, Martin F. & Traeger, Christian, 2022. "Carbon dioxide removal in a global analytic climate economy," Kiel Working Papers 2227, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. So-Won Choi & Bo-Guk Seo & Eul-Bum Lee, 2023. "Machine Learning-Based Tap Temperature Prediction and Control for Optimized Power Consumption in Stainless Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) of Steel Plants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-31, April.
    6. Deroubaix, Paul & Kobashi, Takuro & Gurriaran, Léna & Benkhelifa, Fouzi & Ciais, Philippe & Tanaka, Katsumasa, 2023. "SolarEV City Concept for Paris," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    7. Katsumasa Tanaka & Christian Azar & Olivier Boucher & Philippe Ciais & Yann Gaucher & Daniel J. A. Johansson, 2022. "Paris Agreement requires substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond COVID-19 public stimulus packages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-10, May.
    8. Khaled El Sakty & Mohamed Abdelraouf & Samira Allam, 2023. "How Logistics Performance Reshapes The Movement Of Stocks In The Context Of Climate Change?," Business Logistics in Modern Management, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 23, pages 43-62.
    9. Longhui Li & Yue Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Kaicun Wang & Can Wang & Tao Wang & Linwang Yuan & Kangxin An & Chenghu Zhou & Guonian Lü, 2022. "Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    10. Sara Cerasoli & Amilcare Porporato, 2023. "Optimal Resource Allocation for Carbon Mitigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Lv, Fei & Wu, Qiong & Ren, Hongbo & Zhou, Weisheng & Li, Qifen, 2024. "On the design and analysis of long-term low-carbon roadmaps: A review and evaluation of available energy-economy-environment models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    12. Le Ravalec, Mickaele & Rambaud, Alexandre & Blum, Véronique, 2022. "Taking climate change seriously: Time to credibly communicate on corporate climate performance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

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