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A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change

Author

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  • Jeremy M. Cohen

    (University of South Florida)

  • Marc J. Lajeunesse

    (University of South Florida)

  • Jason R. Rohr

    (University of South Florida)

Abstract

Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species1–5. Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level 1 , latitude 6 and how phenological responses are measured 7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy M. Cohen & Marc J. Lajeunesse & Jason R. Rohr, 2018. "A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(3), pages 224-228, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0067-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0067-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin C. Rose & Britta Bierwagen & Scott D. Bridgham & Daren M. Carlisle & Charles P. Hawkins & N. LeRoy Poff & Jordan S. Read & Jason R. Rohr & Jasmine E. Saros & Craig E. Williamson, 2023. "Indicators of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Rui Yin & Wenkuan Qin & Xudong Wang & Dong Xie & Hao Wang & Hongyang Zhao & Zhenhua Zhang & Jin-Sheng He & Martin Schädler & Paul Kardol & Nico Eisenhauer & Biao Zhu, 2023. "Experimental warming causes mismatches in alpine plant-microbe-fauna phenology," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Roberto Novella-Fernandez & Roland Brandl & Stefan Pinkert & Dirk Zeuss & Christian Hof, 2023. "Seasonal variation in dragonfly assemblage colouration suggests a link between thermal melanism and phenology," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Joseph Taylor & Malcolm A. C. Nicoll & Emily Black & Caroline M. Wainwright & Carl G. Jones & Vikash Tatayah & Pier Luigi Vidale & Ken Norris, 2021. "Phenological tracking of a seasonal climate window in a recovering tropical island bird species," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Jake F. Weltzin & Julio L. Betancourt & Benjamin I. Cook & Theresa M. Crimmins & Carolyn A. F. Enquist & Michael D. Gerst & John E. Gross & Geoffrey M. Henebry & Rebecca A. Hufft & Melissa A. Kenney &, 2020. "Seasonality of biological and physical systems as indicators of climatic variation and change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1755-1771, December.
    6. Conor C. Taff & J. Ryan. Shipley, 2023. "Inconsistent shifts in warming and temperature variability are linked to reduced avian fitness," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Jaroslav Koleček & Peter Adamík & Jiří Reif, 2020. "Shifts in migration phenology under climate change: temperature vs. abundance effects in birds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 177-194, March.

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