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Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas F. Prein

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Changhai Liu

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Kyoko Ikeda

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Stanley B. Trier

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Roy M. Rasmussen

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Greg J. Holland

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Martyn P. Clark

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

Abstract

Mesoscale convective system (MCS)-organized convective storms with a size of ~100 km have increased in frequency and intensity in the USA over the past 35 years 1 , causing fatalities and economic losses 2 . However, their poor representation in traditional climate models hampers the understanding of their change in the future 3 . Here, a North American-scale convection-permitting model which is able to realistically simulate MSCs 4 is used to investigate their change by the end-of-century under RCP8.5 (ref. 5 ). A storm-tracking algorithm 6 indicates that intense summertime MCS frequency will more than triple in North America. Furthermore, the combined effect of a 15–40% increase in maximum precipitation rates and a significant spreading of regions impacted by heavy precipitation results in up to 80% increases in the total MCS precipitation volume, focussed in a 40 km radius around the storm centre. These typically neglected increases substantially raise future flood risk. Current investments in long-lived infrastructures, such as flood protection and water management systems, need to take these changes into account to improve climate-adaptation practices.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas F. Prein & Changhai Liu & Kyoko Ikeda & Stanley B. Trier & Roy M. Rasmussen & Greg J. Holland & Martyn P. Clark, 2017. "Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 880-884, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-017-0007-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0007-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Borsky, Stefan & Unterberger, Christian, 2019. "Bad weather and flight delays: The impact of sudden and slow onset weather events," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 10-26.
    2. Anamaria Bukvic & Julia Gohlke & Aishwarya Borate & Jessica Suggs, 2018. "Aging in Flood-Prone Coastal Areas: Discerning the Health and Well-Being Risk for Older Residents," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-25, December.
    3. Choi, Eseul & DePaula, Guilherme & Kyveryga, Peter & Fey, Suzanne, 2024. "The Trade-off between Yield and Nitrogen Pollution under Excessive Rainfall: Evidence from On-farm Field Experiments in Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 202402222018560000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Paul Kirshen & Mark Borrelli & Jarrett Byrnes & Robert Chen & Lucy Lockwood & Chris Watson & Kimberly Starbuck & Jack Wiggin & Allison Novelly & Kristin Uiterwyk & Kelli Thurson & Brett McMann & Carly, 2020. "Integrated assessment of storm surge barrier systems under present and future climates and comparison to alternatives: a case study of Boston, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 445-464, September.
    5. Bradt, Jacob T. & Kousky, Carolyn & Wing, Oliver E.J., 2021. "Voluntary purchases and adverse selection in the market for flood insurance," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

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