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Managing uncertainty in soil carbon feedbacks to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Mark A. Bradford

    (School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University
    Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW))

  • William R. Wieder

    (Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research
    Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado)

  • Gordon B. Bonan

    (Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Noah Fierer

    (University of Colorado
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado)

  • Peter A. Raymond

    (School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University)

  • Thomas W. Crowther

    (School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University
    Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW))

Abstract

Planetary warming may be exacerbated if it accelerates loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere. This carbon-cycle–climate feedback is included in climate projections. Yet, despite ancillary data supporting a positive feedback, there is limited evidence for soil carbon loss under warming. The low confidence engendered in feedback projections is reduced further by the common representation in models of an outdated knowledge of soil carbon turnover. 'Model-knowledge integration' — representing in models an advanced understanding of soil carbon stabilization — is the first step to build confidence. This will inform experiments that further increase confidence by resolving competing mechanisms that most influence projected soil-carbon stocks. Improving feedback projections is an imperative for establishing greenhouse gas emission targets that limit climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark A. Bradford & William R. Wieder & Gordon B. Bonan & Noah Fierer & Peter A. Raymond & Thomas W. Crowther, 2016. "Managing uncertainty in soil carbon feedbacks to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(8), pages 751-758, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:6:y:2016:i:8:d:10.1038_nclimate3071
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3071
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    Cited by:

    1. Ying Chen & Wenkuan Qin & Qiufang Zhang & Xudong Wang & Jiguang Feng & Mengguang Han & Yanhui Hou & Hongyang Zhao & Zhenhua Zhang & Jin-Sheng He & Margaret S. Torn & Biao Zhu, 2024. "Whole-soil warming leads to substantial soil carbon emission in an alpine grassland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Nicholas O. E. Ofiti & Michael W. I. Schmidt & Samuel Abiven & Paul J. Hanson & Colleen M. Iversen & Rachel M. Wilson & Joel E. Kostka & Guido L. B. Wiesenberg & Avni Malhotra, 2023. "Climate warming and elevated CO2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Walter Leal Filho & Robert Stojanov & Franziska Wolf & Newton R. Matandirotya & Christian Ploberger & Desalegn Y. Ayal & Fardous Mohammad Safiul Azam & Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal & Rebecca Sarku & No, 2022. "Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change Adaptation and Land Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Xiaochen Liu & Shuai Wang & Qianlai Zhuang & Xinxin Jin & Zhenxing Bian & Mingyi Zhou & Zhuo Meng & Chunlan Han & Xiaoyu Guo & Wenjuan Jin & Yufei Zhang, 2022. "A Review on Carbon Source and Sink in Arable Land Ecosystems," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
    5. Meyer, Rachelle S. & Cullen, Brendan R. & Whetton, Penny H. & Robertson, Fiona A. & Eckard, Richard J., 2018. "Potential impacts of climate change on soil organic carbon and productivity in pastures of south eastern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 34-46.
    6. Guoai Li & Xuxu Chai & Zheng Shi & Honghua Ruan, 2023. "Interactive Effects Determine Radiocarbon Abundance in Soil Fractions of Global Biomes," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    7. Charlotte J. Alster & Allycia Laar & Jordan P. Goodrich & Vickery L. Arcus & Julie R. Deslippe & Alexis J. Marshall & Louis A. Schipper, 2023. "Quantifying thermal adaptation of soil microbial respiration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Daifeng Xiang & Gangsheng Wang & Jing Tian & Wanyu Li, 2023. "Global patterns and edaphic-climatic controls of soil carbon decomposition kinetics predicted from incubation experiments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Ludovic Henneron & Jerôme Balesdent & Gaël Alvarez & Pierre Barré & François Baudin & Isabelle Basile-Doelsch & Lauric Cécillon & Alejandro Fernandez-Martinez & Christine Hatté & Sébastien Fontaine, 2022. "Bioenergetic control of soil carbon dynamics across depth," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    10. M. D. Petrie & J. B. Bradford & W. K. Lauenroth & D. R. Schlaepfer & C. M. Andrews & D. M. Bell, 2020. "Non-analog increases to air, surface, and belowground temperature extreme events due to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2233-2256, December.
    11. Adriana L Romero-Olivares & Steven D Allison & Kathleen K Treseder, 2017. "Decomposition of recalcitrant carbon under experimental warming in boreal forest," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-11, June.
    12. Ang Hu & Kyoung-Soon Jang & Andrew J. Tanentzap & Wenqian Zhao & Jay T. Lennon & Jinfu Liu & Mingjia Li & James Stegen & Mira Choi & Yahai Lu & Xiaojuan Feng & Jianjun Wang, 2024. "Thermal responses of dissolved organic matter under global change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Heiko Wirths & Joachim Rathmann & Peter Michaelis, 2018. "The permafrost carbon feedback in DICE-2013R modeling and empirical results," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(1), pages 109-124, January.
    14. Li, Jianzheng & Wang, Ligang & Luo, Zhongkui & Wang, Enli & Wang, Guocheng & Zhou, Han & Li, Hu & Xu, Shiwei, 2021. "Reducing N2O emissions while maintaining yield in a wheat–maize rotation system modelled by APSIM," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    15. Alizadeh, Reza & Lund, Peter D. & Soltanisehat, Leili, 2020. "Outlook on biofuels in future studies: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Jing Tian & Jennifer A. J. Dungait & Ruixing Hou & Ye Deng & Iain P. Hartley & Yunfeng Yang & Yakov Kuzyakov & Fusuo Zhang & M. Francesca Cotrufo & Jizhong Zhou, 2024. "Microbially mediated mechanisms underlie soil carbon accrual by conservation agriculture under decade-long warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    17. Mingming Wang & Xiaowei Guo & Shuai Zhang & Liujun Xiao & Umakant Mishra & Yuanhe Yang & Biao Zhu & Guocheng Wang & Xiali Mao & Tian Qian & Tong Jiang & Zhou Shi & Zhongkui Luo, 2022. "Global soil profiles indicate depth-dependent soil carbon losses under a warmer climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Shuai Ren & Tao Wang & Bertrand Guenet & Dan Liu & Yingfang Cao & Jinzhi Ding & Pete Smith & Shilong Piao, 2024. "Projected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Jialing Teng & Ruixing Hou & Jennifer A. J. Dungait & Guiyao Zhou & Yakov Kuzyakov & Jingbo Zhang & Jing Tian & Zhenling Cui & Fusuo Zhang & Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, 2024. "Conservation agriculture improves soil health and sustains crop yields after long-term warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Chengjie Ren & Zhenghu Zhou & Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo & Felipe Bastida & Fazhu Zhao & Yuanhe Yang & Shuohong Zhang & Jieying Wang & Chao Zhang & Xinhui Han & Jun Wang & Gaihe Yang & Gehong Wei, 2024. "Thermal sensitivity of soil microbial carbon use efficiency across forest biomes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.

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