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Greenhouse-gas payback times for crop-based biofuels

Author

Listed:
  • P. M. F. Elshout

    (Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, PO Box 9010)

  • R. van Zelm

    (Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, PO Box 9010)

  • J. Balkovic

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services & Management Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
    Comenius University in Bratislava, Faculty of Natural Sciences)

  • M. Obersteiner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services & Management Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • E. Schmid

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, Feistmantelstrasse 4, A-1180 Vienna, Austria)

  • R. Skalsky

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services & Management Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • M. van der Velde

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services & Management Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
    Present address: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 21027 Ispra, Italy.)

  • M. A. J. Huijbregts

    (Radboud University Nijmegen, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, PO Box 9010)

Abstract

A global increase in the demand for crop-based biofuels may be met by cropland expansion, and could require the sacrifice of natural vegetation. Such land transformation alters the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the original system, and causes significant greenhouse-gas emissions, which should be considered when assessing the global warming performance of crop-based biofuels. As an indicator of this performance we propose the use of greenhouse-gas payback time (GPBT), that is, the number of years it takes before the greenhouse-gas savings due to displacing fossil fuels with biofuels equal the initial losses of carbon and nitrogen stocks from the original ecosystem. Spatially explicit global GPBTs were derived for biofuel production systems using five different feedstocks (corn, rapeseed, soybean, sugarcane and winter wheat), cultivated under no-input and high-input farm management. Overall, GPBTs were found to range between 1 and 162 years (95% range, median: 19 years) with the longest GPBTs occurring in the tropics. Replacing no-input with high-input farming typically shortened the GPBTs by 45 to 79%. Location of crop cultivation was identified as the primary factor driving variation in GPBTs. This study underscores the importance of using spatially explicit impact assessments to guide biofuel policy.

Suggested Citation

  • P. M. F. Elshout & R. van Zelm & J. Balkovic & M. Obersteiner & E. Schmid & R. Skalsky & M. van der Velde & M. A. J. Huijbregts, 2015. "Greenhouse-gas payback times for crop-based biofuels," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 604-610, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:6:d:10.1038_nclimate2642
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2642
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcelo Sant'Anna, 2024. "How Green Is Sugarcane Ethanol?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 202-216, January.
    2. Steef V. Hanssen & Vassilis Daioglou & Zoran J. N. Steinmann & Stefan Frank & Alexander Popp & Thierry Brunelle & Pekka Lauri & Tomoko Hasegawa & Mark A. J. Huijbregts & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2020. "Biomass residues as twenty-first century bioenergy feedstock—a comparison of eight integrated assessment models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1569-1586, December.
    3. Xie, Lunyu & MacDonald, Sarah L. & Auffhammer, Maximilian & Jaiswal, Deepak & Berck, Peter, 2019. "Environment or food: Modeling future land use patterns of miscanthus for bioenergy using fine scale data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 225-236.
    4. van Zelm, Rosalie & van der Velde, Marijn & Balkovic, Juraj & Čengić, Mirza & Elshout, Pieter M.F. & Koellner, Thomas & Núñez, Montserrat & Obersteiner, Michael & Schmid, Erwin & Huijbregts, Mark A.J., 2018. "Spatially explicit life cycle impact assessment for soil erosion from global crop production," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 30(PB), pages 220-227.
    5. Gasparatos, Alexandros & Doll, Christopher N.H. & Esteban, Miguel & Ahmed, Abubakari & Olang, Tabitha A., 2017. "Renewable energy and biodiversity: Implications for transitioning to a Green Economy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 161-184.

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