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Natural climate variability and future climate policy

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  • Katharine L. Ricke

    (Carnegie Institution for Science)

  • Ken Caldeira

    (Carnegie Institution for Science)

Abstract

Large ensemble climate modelling experiments demonstrate the large role natural variability plays in local climate on a multi-decadal timescale. Variability in local weather and climate influences individual beliefs about climate change. To the extent that support for climate mitigation policies is determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability will strongly influence the timescale for implementation of such policies. Under a number of illustrative threshold criteria for both national and international climate action, we show that variability-driven uncertainty about local change, even in the face of a well-constrained estimate of global change, can potentially delay the time to policy implementation by decades. Because several decades of greenhouse gas emissions can have a large impact on long-term climate outcomes, there is substantial risk associated with climate policies driven by consensus among individuals who are strongly influenced by local weather conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Katharine L. Ricke & Ken Caldeira, 2014. "Natural climate variability and future climate policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(5), pages 333-338, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:4:y:2014:i:5:d:10.1038_nclimate2186
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2186
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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Lackner & Luca E. Fierro & Patrick Mellacher, 2024. "Opinion Dynamics meet Agent-based Climate Economics: An Integrated Analysis of Carbon Taxation," LEM Papers Series 2024/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Yang, Chao & Liang, Gaoqi & Liu, Jinjie & Liu, Guolong & Yang, Hongming & Zhao, Junhua & Dong, Zhaoyang, 2023. "A non-intrusive carbon emission accounting method for industrial corporations from the perspective of modern power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    3. Frances C. Moore, 2017. "Learning, Adaptation, And Weather In A Changing Climate," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Matthew R. Sisco & Valentina Bosetti & Elke U. Weber, 2017. "When do extreme weather events generate attention to climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 227-241, July.
    5. Sławomir Zalewski, 2021. "Advanced Controlled Road Lighting System Concurrent with Users," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-9, November.

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