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Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Johann D. Bell

    (Fisheries, Secretariat of the Pacific Community)

  • Alexandre Ganachaud

    (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
    Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, UMR5566, UPS (OMP-PCA))

  • Peter C. Gehrke

    (SMEC Australia Pty Ltd, Level 1)

  • Shane P. Griffiths

    (Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Alistair J. Hobday

    (Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

    (Global Change Institute, University of Queensland)

  • Johanna E. Johnson

    (C2O Consulting and School of Environment, Science and Technology, Southern Cross University)

  • Robert Le Borgne

    (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)

  • Patrick Lehodey

    (Collecte Localisation Satellites, 8-10 rue Hermes Parc Technologique de Canal)

  • Janice M. Lough

    (Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3)

  • Richard J. Matear

    (Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Timothy D. Pickering

    (Fisheries, Secretariat of the Pacific Community)

  • Morgan S. Pratchett

    (ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University)

  • Alex Sen Gupta

    (Climate Change Research Centre, University of NSW)

  • Inna Senina

    (Collecte Localisation Satellites, 8-10 rue Hermes Parc Technologique de Canal)

  • Michelle Waycott

    (School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Adelaide
    State Herbarium of South Australia)

Abstract

Pacific Island countries have an extraordinary dependence on fisheries and aquaculture. Maintaining the benefits from the sector is a difficult task, now made more complex by climate change. Here we report how changes to the atmosphere–ocean are likely to affect the food webs, habitats and stocks underpinning fisheries and aquaculture across the region. We found winners and losers—tuna are expected to be more abundant in the east and freshwater aquaculture and fisheries are likely to be more productive. Conversely, coral reef fisheries could decrease by 20% by 2050 and coastal aquaculture may be less efficient. We demonstrate how the economic and social implications can be addressed within the sector—tuna and freshwater aquaculture can help support growing populations as coral reefs, coastal fisheries and mariculture decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Johann D. Bell & Alexandre Ganachaud & Peter C. Gehrke & Shane P. Griffiths & Alistair J. Hobday & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Johanna E. Johnson & Robert Le Borgne & Patrick Lehodey & Janice M. Lough & Rich, 2013. "Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 591-599, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:6:d:10.1038_nclimate1838
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1838
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ling Cao & Benjamin S. Halpern & Max Troell & Rebecca Short & Cong Zeng & Ziyu Jiang & Yue Liu & Chengxuan Zou & Chunyu Liu & Shurong Liu & Xiangwei Liu & William W. L. Cheung & Richard S. Cottrell & , 2023. "Vulnerability of blue foods to human-induced environmental change," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1186-1198, October.
    2. Hallegatte, Stephane & Bangalore, Mook & Bonzanigo, Laura & Fay, Marianne & Narloch, Ulf & Rozenberg, Julie & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2014. "Climate change and poverty -- an analytical framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7126, The World Bank.
    3. Johann D. Bell & Inna Senina & Timothy Adams & Olivier Aumont & Beatriz Calmettes & Sangaalofa Clark & Morgane Dessert & Marion Gehlen & Thomas Gorgues & John Hampton & Quentin Hanich & Harriet Harden, 2021. "Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 900-910, October.
    4. Tram Anh Thi Nguyen & Kim Anh Thi Nguyen & Curtis Jolly, 2019. "Is Super-Intensification the Solution to Shrimp Production and Export Sustainability?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Bell, Johann D. & Albert, Joelle & Andréfouët, Serge & Andrew, Neil L. & Blanc, Michel & Bright, Philip & Brogan, Deidre & Campbell, Brooke & Govan, Hugh & Hampton, John & Hanich, Quentin & Harley, Sh, 2015. "Optimising the use of nearshore fish aggregating devices for food security in the Pacific Islands," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 98-105.
    6. Brian Pentz & Nicole Klenk, 2020. "Understanding the limitations of current RFMO climate change adaptation strategies: the case of the IATTC and the Eastern Pacific Ocean," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 21-39, March.
    7. Thi Lam Pham & Izuru Saizen, 2023. "Coastal fishers’ livelihood adaptations to extreme weather events: an analysis of household strategies in Quang Ngai Province, Vietnam," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Speers, Ann E. & Besedin, Elena Y. & Palardy, James E. & Moore, Chris, 2016. "Impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reef fisheries: An integrated ecological–economic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 33-43.
    9. Johanna E. Johnson & David J. Welch, 2016. "Climate change implications for Torres Strait fisheries: assessing vulnerability to inform adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 611-624, April.
    10. Heenan, Adel & Pomeroy, Robert & Bell, Johann & Munday, Philip L. & Cheung, William & Logan, Cheryl & Brainard, Russell & Yang Amri, Affendi & Aliño, Porfirio & Armada, Nygiel & David, Laura & Rivera-, 2015. "A climate-informed, ecosystem approach to fisheries management," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-192.
    11. Shepherd Muchuru & Godwell Nhamo, 2018. "Climate change adaptation and the African fisheries: evidence from the UNFCCC National Communications," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 1687-1705, August.
    12. Sangare, Nathanaël & Lo-Yat, Alain & Moullac, Gilles Le & Pecquerie, Laure & Thomas, Yoann & Lefebvre, Sébastien & Gendre, Romain Le & Beliaeff, Benoît & Andréfouët, Serge, 2020. "Impact of environmental variability on Pinctada margaritifera life-history traits: A full life cycle deb modeling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 423(C).
    13. Hanny John Mediodia & Viktoria Kahui & Ilan Noy, 2023. "Sea Surface Temperature and Tuna Catch in the Eastern Pacific Ocean under Climate Change," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(4), pages 329-351.
    14. Evans, K. & Young, J.W. & Nicol, S. & Kolody, D. & Allain, V. & Bell, J. & Brown, J.N. & Ganachaud, A. & Hobday, A.J. & Hunt, B. & Innes, J. & Gupta, A. Sen & van Sebille, E. & Kloser, R. & Patterson,, 2015. "Optimising fisheries management in relation to tuna catches in the western central Pacific Ocean: A review of research priorities and opportunities," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 94-104.
    15. Bell, Johann D. & Allain, Valerie & Allison, Edward H. & Andréfouët, Serge & Andrew, Neil L. & Batty, Michael J. & Blanc, Michel & Dambacher, Jeffrey M. & Hampton, John & Hanich, Quentin & Harley, She, 2015. "Diversifying the use of tuna to improve food security and public health in Pacific Island countries and territories," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 584-591.

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