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Assessing the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on China’s carbon emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Ling Tang

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Junai Yang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Jiali Zheng

    (Xi’an Jiaotong University)

  • Xinlu Sun

    (University College London)

  • Lu Cheng

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Kehan He

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Ling Li

    (Capital University of Economics and Business)

  • Jinkai Li

    (Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Wenjia Cai

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Shouyang Wang

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    ShanghaiTech University)

  • Paul Drummond

    (University College London)

  • Zhifu Mi

    (University College London)

Abstract

The gradual adjustment of fertility and retirement policies in China has social benefits in terms of coping with population aging. However, the environmental consequences of these policies remain ambiguous. Here we compile environmentally extended multiregional input–output tables to estimate household carbon footprints for different population age groups in China. Subsequently, we estimate the age-sex-specific population under different fertility policies up to 2060 and assess the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on household carbon footprints. We find that Chinese young people have relatively higher household carbon footprints than their older counterparts due to differences in income by age group. Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age are associated with an increase in population (and labour supply) and thus increases in household carbon footprints, with the majority of these increases from the fertility side. These results may help policymakers understand interactions among those measures targeting population aging and climate action.

Suggested Citation

  • Ling Tang & Junai Yang & Jiali Zheng & Xinlu Sun & Lu Cheng & Kehan He & Ling Li & Jinkai Li & Wenjia Cai & Shouyang Wang & Paul Drummond & Zhifu Mi, 2024. "Assessing the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on China’s carbon emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(12), pages 1261-1267, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02162-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02162-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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