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Microclimate and forest density drive plant population dynamics under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Pieter Sanczuk

    (Ghent University)

  • Karen Pauw

    (Ghent University)

  • Emiel Lombaerde

    (Ghent University)

  • Miska Luoto

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Camille Meeussen

    (Ghent University)

  • Sanne Govaert

    (Ghent University)

  • Thomas Vanneste

    (Ghent University)

  • Leen Depauw

    (Ghent University)

  • Jörg Brunet

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Sara A. O. Cousins

    (Stockholm University)

  • Cristina Gasperini

    (University of Florence
    NBFC, National Biodiversity Future Center)

  • Per-Ola Hedwall

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Giovanni Iacopetti

    (University of Florence)

  • Jonathan Lenoir

    (Université de Picardie Jules Verne)

  • Jan Plue

    (IVL Swedish Environmental Institute)

  • Federico Selvi

    (University of Florence
    NBFC, National Biodiversity Future Center)

  • Fabien Spicher

    (Université de Picardie Jules Verne)

  • Jaime Uria-Diez

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Kris Verheyen

    (Ghent University)

  • Pieter Vangansbeke

    (Ghent University)

  • Pieter Frenne

    (Ghent University)

Abstract

Macroclimatic changes are impacting ecosystems worldwide. However, a large portion of terrestrial species live under conditions where impacts of macroclimate change are buffered, such as in the shade of trees, and how this buffering impacts future below-canopy biodiversity redistributions at the continental scale is unknown. Here we show that shady forest floors due to dense tree canopies mitigate severe warming impacts on forest biodiversity, while canopy opening amplifies macroclimate change impacts. A cross-continental transplant experiment in five contrasting biogeographical areas combined with experimental heating and irradiation treatments was used to parametize 25-m resolution mechanistic demographic distribution models and project the current and future distributions of 12 common understorey plant species, considering the effects of forest microclimate and forest cover density. These results highlight microclimates and forest density as powerful tools for forest managers and policymakers to shelter forest biodiversity from climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Pieter Sanczuk & Karen Pauw & Emiel Lombaerde & Miska Luoto & Camille Meeussen & Sanne Govaert & Thomas Vanneste & Leen Depauw & Jörg Brunet & Sara A. O. Cousins & Cristina Gasperini & Per-Ola Hedwall, 2023. "Microclimate and forest density drive plant population dynamics under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(8), pages 840-847, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01744-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01744-y
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