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Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Maria del Rosario Uribe

    (University of California Irvine
    Yale University)

  • Michael T. Coe

    (Woodwell Climate Research Center)

  • Andrea D. A. Castanho

    (Woodwell Climate Research Center)

  • Marcia N. Macedo

    (Woodwell Climate Research Center)

  • Denis Valle

    (University of Florida)

  • Paulo M. Brando

    (University of California Irvine
    Yale University
    Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM))

Abstract

Tropical ecosystems store over half of the world’s aboveground live carbon as biomass, and water availability plays a key role in its distribution. Although precipitation and temperature are shifting across the tropics, their effect on biomass and carbon storage remains uncertain. Here we use empirical relationships between climate and aboveground biomass content to show that the contraction of humid regions, and expansion of those with intense dry periods, results in substantial carbon loss from the neotropics. Under a low emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) this could cause a net reduction of aboveground live carbon of ~14.4–23.9 PgC (6.8–12%) from 1950–2100. Under a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) net carbon losses could double across the tropics, to ~28.2–39.7 PgC (13.3–20.1%). The contraction of humid regions in South America accounts for ~40% of this change. Climate mitigation strategies could prevent half of the carbon losses and help maintain the natural tropical net carbon sink.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria del Rosario Uribe & Michael T. Coe & Andrea D. A. Castanho & Marcia N. Macedo & Denis Valle & Paulo M. Brando, 2023. "Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(3), pages 274-281, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01600-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01600-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences & Interagency Working Group for Farming Seaweeds and Seagrasses & Editors: & Price, Nichole N. & Rexroad, Caird & Quigley, Charlotte & Stamieszkin, Karen & Langto, 2024. "Farming Seagrasses and Seaweeds: Responsible Restoration & Revenue Generation," USDA Miscellaneous 347311, United States Department of Agriculture.

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