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Geostrophic flows control future changes of oceanic eastern boundary upwelling

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao Jing

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Shengpeng Wang

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Hong Wang

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Shenghui Zhou

    (Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Bingrong Sun

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Zhaohui Chen

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Xiaohui Ma

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Bolan Gan

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Haiyuan Yang

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

Abstract

Equatorward alongshore winds over major eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) drive intense upwelling via Ekman dynamics, surfacing nutrient-rich deep waters and promoting marine primary production and fisheries. It is generally thought, dating back to Bakun’s hypothesis, that greenhouse warming should enhance upwelling in EBUSs by intensifying upwelling-favourable winds; yet this has not been tested. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate simulations with improved EBUS representation, we show that long-term upwelling changes in EBUSs differ substantially, under a high-emission scenario, from those inferred by the wind-based upwelling index. Specifically, weakened or unchanged upwelling can coincide with intensified upwelling-favourable winds. These differences are linked to long-term changes of geostrophic flows that dominate upwelling changes in the Canary and Benguela currents and strongly offset wind-driven changes in the California and Humboldt currents. Our results highlight the controlling role of geostrophic flows in upwelling trends in EBUSs under greenhouse warming, which Bakun’s hypothesis overlooked.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao Jing & Shengpeng Wang & Lixin Wu & Hong Wang & Shenghui Zhou & Bingrong Sun & Zhaohui Chen & Xiaohui Ma & Bolan Gan & Haiyuan Yang, 2023. "Geostrophic flows control future changes of oceanic eastern boundary upwelling," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(2), pages 148-154, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01588-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01588-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Tianshi Du & Shengpeng Wang & Zhao Jing & Lixin Wu & Chao Zhang & Bihan Zhang, 2024. "Future changes in coastal upwelling and biological production in eastern boundary upwelling systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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