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Status of global coastal adaptation

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre K. Magnan

    (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Sciences Po)
    CNRS and La Rochelle University
    United Nations Environment Programme (Secretariat))

  • Robert Bell

    (University of Waikato
    Bell Adapt Ltd)

  • Virginie K. E. Duvat

    (CNRS and La Rochelle University)

  • James D. Ford

    (University of Leeds)

  • Matthias Garschagen

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU))

  • Marjolijn Haasnoot

    (Deltares
    Utrecht University)

  • Carmen Lacambra

    (Grupo Laera)

  • Inigo J. Losada

    (IHCantabria, Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria)

  • Katharine J. Mach

    (University of Miami
    University of Miami)

  • Mélinda Noblet

    (University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yveline)

  • Devanathan Parthasaranthy

    (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay)

  • Marcello Sano

    (Griffith University)

  • Katharine Vincent

    (Kulima Integrated Development Solutions)

  • Ariadna Anisimov

    (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Sciences Po)
    University of Antwerp, Research Foundation Flanders)

  • Susan Hanson

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Alexandra Malmström

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Robert J. Nicholls

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Gundula Winter

    (Deltares)

Abstract

The state of progress towards climate adaptation is currently unclear. Here we apply a structured expert judgement to assess multiple dimensions shaping adaptation (equally weighted): risk knowledge, planning, action, capacities, evidence on risk reduction, long-term pathway strategies. We apply this approach to 61 local coastal case studies clustered into four urban and rural archetypes to develop a locally informed perspective on the state of global coastal adaptation. We show with medium confidence that today’s global coastal adaptation is halfway to the full adaptation potential. Urban archetypes generally score higher than rural ones (with a wide spread of local situations), adaptation efforts are unbalanced across the assessment dimensions and strategizing for long-term pathways remains limited. The results provide a multi-dimensional and locally grounded assessment of global coastal adaptation and lay new foundations for international climate negotiations by showing that there is room to refine global adaptation targets and identify priorities transcending development levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre K. Magnan & Robert Bell & Virginie K. E. Duvat & James D. Ford & Matthias Garschagen & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Carmen Lacambra & Inigo J. Losada & Katharine J. Mach & Mélinda Noblet & Devanatha, 2023. "Status of global coastal adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(11), pages 1213-1221, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01834-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01834-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis & Ignasi Cortes Arbues & Daniel Lincke & Jochen Hinkel & Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis & Richard S.J. Tol, "undated". "Actualised and future changes in regional economic growth through sea level rise," Working Paper Series 0324, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Tom Spencer & Alexandre K. Magnan & Simon Donner & Matthias Garschagen & James Ford & Virginie K. E. Duvat & Colette C. C. Wabnitz, 2024. "Habitability of low-lying socio-ecological systems under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Ren, Xin & Nane, Gabriela F. & Terwel, Karel C. & van Gelder, Pieter H.A.J.M., 2024. "Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).

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