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Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Author

Listed:
  • Jason E. Box

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

  • Alun Hubbard

    (The Arctic University of Norway
    Oulun yliopisto)

  • David B. Bahr

    (University of Colorado)

  • William T. Colgan

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

  • Xavier Fettweis

    (University of Liège)

  • Kenneth D. Mankoff

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

  • Adrien Wehrlé

    (University of Zürich)

  • Brice Noël

    (Utrecht University)

  • Michiel R. Broeke

    (Utrecht University)

  • Bert Wouters

    (Utrecht University
    Delft University of Technology)

  • Anders A. Bjørk

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Robert S. Fausto

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

Abstract

Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason E. Box & Alun Hubbard & David B. Bahr & William T. Colgan & Xavier Fettweis & Kenneth D. Mankoff & Adrien Wehrlé & Brice Noël & Michiel R. Broeke & Bert Wouters & Anders A. Bjørk & Robert S. Fau, 2022. "Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(9), pages 808-813, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01441-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2
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    Cited by:

    1. H. Patton & A. Hubbard & J. Heyman & N. Alexandropoulou & A. P. E. Lasabuda & A. P. Stroeven & A. M. Hall & M. Winsborrow & D. E. Sugden & J. Kleman & K. Andreassen, 2022. "The extreme yet transient nature of glacial erosion," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Galimova, Tansu & Satymov, Rasul & Keiner, Dominik & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Sustainable energy transition of Greenland and its prospects as a potential Arctic e-fuel and e-chemical export hub for Europe and East Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).

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