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Soil quality both increases crop production and improves resilience to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Lei Qiao

    (China Agricultural University
    China Agricultural University)

  • Xuhui Wang

    (Peking University)

  • Pete Smith

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • Jinlong Fan

    (China Meteorological Administration)

  • Yuelai Lu

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Bridget Emmett

    (Environment Centre Wales)

  • Rong Li

    (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China)

  • Stephen Dorling

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Haiqing Chen

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Shaogui Liu

    (Yangzhou Station of Farmland Quality Protection)

  • Tim G. Benton

    (Chatham House)

  • Yaojun Wang

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Yuqing Ma

    (China Agricultural University
    China Agricultural University)

  • Rongfeng Jiang

    (China Agricultural University
    China Agricultural University)

  • Fusuo Zhang

    (China Agricultural University
    China Agricultural University)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University)

  • Christoph Mϋller

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Huaqing Yang

    (China Agricultural University
    China Agricultural University)

  • Yanan Hao

    (China Agricultural University
    China Agricultural University)

  • Wangmei Li

    (China Agricultural University
    China Agricultural University)

  • Mingsheng Fan

    (China Agricultural University
    China Agricultural University)

Abstract

Interactions between soil quality and climate change may influence the capacity of croplands to produce sufficient food. Here, we address this issue by using a new dataset of soil, climate and associated yield observations for 12,115 site-years representing 90% of total cereal production in China. Across crops and environmental conditions, we show that high-quality soils reduced the sensitivity of crop yield to climate variability leading to both higher mean crop yield (10.3 ± 6.7%) and higher yield stability (decreasing variability by 15.6 ± 14.4%). High-quality soils improve the outcome for yields under climate change by 1.7% (0.5–4.0%), compared to low-quality soils. Climate-driven yield change could result in reductions of national cereal production of 11.4 Mt annually under representative concentration pathway RCP 8.5 by 2080–2099. While this production reduction was exacerbated by 14% due to soil degradation, it can be reduced by 21% through soil improvement. This study emphasizes the vital role of soil quality in agriculture under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Qiao & Xuhui Wang & Pete Smith & Jinlong Fan & Yuelai Lu & Bridget Emmett & Rong Li & Stephen Dorling & Haiqing Chen & Shaogui Liu & Tim G. Benton & Yaojun Wang & Yuqing Ma & Rongfeng Jiang & Fusu, 2022. "Soil quality both increases crop production and improves resilience to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(6), pages 574-580, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01376-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01376-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Shibo & Zhao, Jin & Zhao, Chuang & Guo, Erjing & Liu, Zhijuan & Harrison, Matthew Tom & Liu, Ke & Zhang, Tianyi & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2024. "Adapting crop land-use in line with a changing climate improves productivity, prosperity and reduces greenhouse gas emissions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Rui Zhang & Yanfeng Wang & Jie Lyu & Zhanxiang Sun, 2023. "Uncovering the Hidden Risks: A Bibliometric Investigation of Farmers’ Vulnerability to Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Zhang, Yajun & Wang, Weilu & Li, Siyu & Zhu, Kuanyu & Hua, Xia & Harrison, Matthew Tom & Liu, Ke & Yang, Jianchang & Liu, Lijun & Chen, Yun, 2023. "Integrated management approaches enabling sustainable rice production under alternate wetting and drying irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).

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