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Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields

Author

Listed:
  • Peng Zhu

    (CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers
    The University of Hong Kong
    Sun Yat-Sen University)

  • Jennifer Burney

    (University of California, San Diego)

  • Jinfeng Chang

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Zhenong Jin

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Nathaniel D. Mueller

    (Colorado State University
    Colorado State University)

  • Qinchuan Xin

    (Sun Yat-Sen University)

  • Jialu Xu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Le Yu

    (Tsinghua University
    Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds)

  • David Makowski

    (Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR 518 MIA)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers)

Abstract

Annual food caloric production is the product of caloric yield, cropping frequency (CF, number of production seasons per year) and cropland area. Existing studies have largely focused on crop yield, whereas how CF responds to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we evaluate the global climate sensitivity of caloric yields and CF at national scale. We find a robust negative association between warming and both caloric yield and CF. By the 2050s, projected CF increases in cold regions are offset by larger decreases in warm regions, resulting in a net global CF reduction (−4.2 ± 2.5% in high emission scenario), suggesting that climate-driven decline in CF will exacerbate crop production loss and not provide climate adaptation alone. Although irrigation is effective in offsetting the projected production loss, irrigation areas have to be expanded by >5% in warm regions to fully offset climate-induced production losses by the 2050s.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Zhu & Jennifer Burney & Jinfeng Chang & Zhenong Jin & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Qinchuan Xin & Jialu Xu & Le Yu & David Makowski & Philippe Ciais, 2022. "Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(11), pages 1016-1023, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01492-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01492-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Kiratu, Nixon Murathi & Aarnoudse, Eefje & Petrick, Martin, 2024. "Irrigation-nutrition linkages under farmer-led and public irrigation schemes in Kenya," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344347, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    2. Sisi Li & Yanhua Zhuang & Hongbin Liu & Zhen Wang & Fulin Zhang & Mingquan Lv & Limei Zhai & Xianpeng Fan & Shiwei Niu & Jingrui Chen & Changxu Xu & Na Wang & Shuhe Ruan & Wangzheng Shen & Menghan Mi , 2023. "Enhancing rice production sustainability and resilience via reactivating small water bodies for irrigation and drainage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Josef Slaboch & Lukáš Čechura & Michal Malý & Jiří Mach, 2022. "The Shadow Values of Soil Hydrological Properties in the Production Potential of Climatic Regionalization of the Czech Republic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Nihat Karakuş & Serdar Selim & Ceren Selim & Rifat Olgun & Ahmet Koç & Zeynep R. Ardahanlıoğlu & Sülem Şenyiğit Doğan & Nisa Ertoy, 2024. "Evaluation of Thermal Comfort Conditions in the Working Environments of Seasonal Agricultural Workers in Csa Koppen Climate Type," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-18, October.

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