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Plant pathogen infection risk tracks global crop yields under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M. Chaloner

    (University of Exeter)

  • Sarah J. Gurr

    (University of Exeter
    Utrecht University)

  • Daniel P. Bebber

    (University of Exeter)

Abstract

Global food security is strongly determined by crop production. Climate change-induced losses to production can occur directly or indirectly, including via the distributions and impacts of plant pathogens. However, the likely changes in pathogen pressure in relation to global crop production are poorly understood. Here we show that temperature-dependent infection risk, r(T), for 80 fungal and oomycete crop pathogens will track projected yield changes in 12 crops over the twenty-first century. For most crops, both yields and r(T) are likely to increase at high latitudes. In contrast, the tropics will see little or no productivity gains, and r(T) is likely to decline. In addition, the United States, Europe and China may experience major changes in pathogen assemblages. The benefits of yield gains may therefore be tempered by the greater burden of crop protection due to increased disease and unfamiliar pathogens.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Chaloner & Sarah J. Gurr & Daniel P. Bebber, 2021. "Plant pathogen infection risk tracks global crop yields under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 710-715, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01104-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01104-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Vanalli, Chiara & Radici, Andrea & Casagrandi, Renato & Gatto, Marino & Bevacqua, Daniele, 2024. "Phenological and epidemiological impacts of climate change on peach production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    2. Mehrabi, Zia & Delzeit, Ruth & Ignaciuk, Adriana & Levers, Christian & Braich, Ginni & Bajaj, Kushank & Amo-Aidoo, Araba & Anderson, Weston & Balgah, Roland A. & Benton, Tim G. & Chari, Martin M. & El, 2022. "Research priorities for global food security under extreme events," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(7), pages 756-766.
    3. Sabina Moser Tralamazza & Emile Gluck-Thaler & Alice Feurtey & Daniel Croll, 2024. "Copy number variation introduced by a massive mobile element facilitates global thermal adaptation in a fungal wheat pathogen," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Maria Lodovica Gullino & Ramon Albajes & Ibrahim Al-Jboory & Francislene Angelotti & Subrata Chakraborty & Karen A. Garrett & Brett Phillip Hurley & Peter Juroszek & Ralf Lopian & Khaled Makkouk & Xub, 2022. "Climate Change and Pathways Used by Pests as Challenges to Plant Health in Agriculture and Forestry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Adolfo Quesada-Román & Lilliam Quirós-Arias & Juan Carlos Zamora-Pereira, 2022. "Interactions between Geomorphology and Production Chain of High-Quality Coffee in Costa Rica," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Telesca, Luciano & Abate, Nicodemo & Faridani, Farid & Lovallo, Michele & Lasaponara, Rosa, 2023. "Revealing traits of phytopathogenic status induced by Xylella Fastidiosa in olive trees by analysing multifractal and informational patterns of MODIS satellite evapotranspiration data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 629(C).
    7. Timothy M. Lenton & Chi Xu & Jesse F. Abrams & Ashish Ghadiali & Sina Loriani & Boris Sakschewski & Caroline Zimm & Kristie L. Ebi & Robert R. Dunn & Jens-Christian Svenning & Marten Scheffer, 2023. "Quantifying the human cost of global warming," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1237-1247, October.
    8. Pengfa Li & Leho Tedersoo & Thomas W. Crowther & Baozhan Wang & Yu Shi & Lu Kuang & Ting Li & Meng Wu & Ming Liu & Lu Luan & Jia Liu & Dongzhen Li & Yongxia Li & Songhan Wang & Muhammad Saleem & Alex , 2023. "Global diversity and biogeography of potential phytopathogenic fungi in a changing world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. repec:ags:aaea22:335933 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Xiance Sang & Chen Chen & Die Hu & Dil Bahadur Rahut, 2024. "Economic benefits of climate-smart agricultural practices: empirical investigations and policy implications," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-21, January.

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