IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v11y2021i11d10.1038_s41558-021-01173-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Author

Listed:
  • Derek P. Tittensor

    (Dalhousie University
    United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre)

  • Camilla Novaglio

    (University of Tasmania
    University of Tasmania)

  • Cheryl S. Harrison

    (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
    Louisiana State University)

  • Ryan F. Heneghan

    (Queensland University of Technology)

  • Nicolas Barrier

    (Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS)

  • Daniele Bianchi

    (University of California Los Angeles)

  • Laurent Bopp

    (Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique)

  • Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz

    (Dalhousie University)

  • Gregory L. Britten

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Matthias Büchner

    (Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • William W. L. Cheung

    (The University of British Columbia)

  • Villy Christensen

    (The University of British Columbia)

  • Marta Coll

    (Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC)
    Ecopath International Initiative Research Association)

  • John P. Dunne

    (NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Tyler D. Eddy

    (Memorial University of Newfoundland)

  • Jason D. Everett

    (The University of Queensland
    Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia
    The University of New South Wales)

  • Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador

    (AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA))

  • Elizabeth A. Fulton

    (University of Tasmania
    Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Eric D. Galbraith

    (McGill University)

  • Didier Gascuel

    (UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae)

  • Jerome Guiet

    (University of California Los Angeles)

  • Jasmin G. John

    (NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Jason S. Link

    (NOAA Fisheries)

  • Heike K. Lotze

    (Dalhousie University)

  • Olivier Maury

    (Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS)

  • Kelly Ortega-Cisneros

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Juliano Palacios-Abrantes

    (The University of British Columbia
    University of Wisconsin)

  • Colleen M. Petrik

    (Texas A&M University)

  • Hubert Pontavice

    (UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae
    Princeton University)

  • Jonathan Rault

    (Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS)

  • Anthony J. Richardson

    (The University of Queensland
    Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia)

  • Lynne Shannon

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Yunne-Jai Shin

    (Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS)

  • Jeroen Steenbeek

    (Ecopath International Initiative Research Association)

  • Charles A. Stock

    (NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Julia L. Blanchard

    (University of Tasmania
    University of Tasmania)

Abstract

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Derek P. Tittensor & Camilla Novaglio & Cheryl S. Harrison & Ryan F. Heneghan & Nicolas Barrier & Daniele Bianchi & Laurent Bopp & Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz & Gregory L. Britten & Matthias Büchner & Wil, 2021. "Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(11), pages 973-981, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01173-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01173-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Granado, Igor & Hernando, Leticia & Uriondo, Zigor & Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A., 2024. "A fishing route optimization decision support system: The case of the tuna purse seiner," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(2), pages 718-732.
    2. Ryan F. Heneghan & Jacinta Holloway-Brown & Josep M. Gasol & Gerhard J. Herndl & Xosé Anxelu G. Morán & Eric D. Galbraith, 2024. "The global distribution and climate resilience of marine heterotrophic prokaryotes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Valle, Mireia & Ramírez-Romero, Eduardo & Ibaibarriaga, Leire & Citores, Leire & Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A. & Chust, Guillem, 2024. "Pan-Atlantic 3D distribution model incorporating water column for commercial fish," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 490(C).
    4. Cesc Gordó-Vilaseca & Mark John Costello & Marta Coll & Alexander Jüterbock & Henning Reiss & Fabrice Stephenson, 2024. "Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Angus Atkinson & Axel G. Rossberg & Ursula Gaedke & Gary Sprules & Ryan F. Heneghan & Stratos Batziakas & Maria Grigoratou & Elaine Fileman & Katrin Schmidt & Constantin Frangoulis, 2024. "Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01173-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.