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The co-evolution of technological promises, modelling, policies and climate change targets

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  • Duncan McLaren

    (Lancaster University)

  • Nils Markusson

    (Lancaster University)

Abstract

The nature and framing of climate targets in international politics has changed substantially since their early expressions in the 1980s. Here, we describe their evolution in five phases—from ‘climate stabilization’ to specific ‘temperature outcomes’—co-evolving with wider climate politics and policy, modelling methods and scenarios, and technological promises (from nuclear power to carbon removal). We argue that this co-evolution has enabled policy prevarication, leaving mitigation poorly delivered, yet the technological promises often remain buried in the models used to inform policy. We conclude with a call to recognise and break this pattern to unleash more effective and just climate policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Duncan McLaren & Nils Markusson, 2020. "The co-evolution of technological promises, modelling, policies and climate change targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(5), pages 392-397, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0740-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0740-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Shinichiro Asayama & Mike Hulme & Nils Markusson, 2021. "Balancing a budget or running a deficit? The offset regime of carbon removal and solar geoengineering under a carbon budget," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Ploy Achakulwisut & Peter Erickson & Céline Guivarch & Roberto Schaeffer & Elina Brutschin & Steve Pye, 2023. "Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Kazi Musa & Norli Ali & Jamaliah Said & Farha Ghapar & Oleg Mariev & Norhayati Mohamed & Hirnissa Mohd Tahir, 2023. "Does the Effectiveness of Budget Deficit Vary between Welfare and Non-Welfare Countries?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-22, February.
    4. Bhardwaj, Chandan & Axsen, Jonn & McCollum, David, 2022. "Which “second-best” climate policies are best? Simulating cost-effective policy mixes for passenger vehicles," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Prabhsimran Singh & Surleen Kaur & Abdullah M. Baabdullah & Yogesh K. Dwivedi & Sandeep Sharma & Ravinder Singh Sawhney & Ronnie Das, 2023. "Is #SDG13 Trending Online? Insights from Climate Change Discussions on Twitter," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 199-219, February.
    6. Wim Carton & Adeniyi Asiyanbi & Silke Beck & Holly J. Buck & Jens F. Lund, 2020. "Negative emissions and the long history of carbon removal," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(6), November.
    7. Kyle S. Herman, 2024. "Doomed to fail? A call to reform global climate governance and greenhouse gas inventories," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 257-288, September.
    8. Duncan McLaren & Olaf Corry, 2021. "Clash of Geofutures and the Remaking of Planetary Order: Faultlines underlying Conflicts over Geoengineering Governance," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 20-33, April.
    9. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    10. Nylund, Petra A. & Brem, Alexander & Agarwal, Nivedita, 2022. "Enabling technologies mitigating climate change: The role of dominant designs in environmental innovation ecosystems," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    11. Dwivedi, Yogesh K. & Hughes, Laurie & Kar, Arpan Kumar & Baabdullah, Abdullah M. & Grover, Purva & Abbas, Roba & Andreini, Daniela & Abumoghli, Iyad & Barlette, Yves & Bunker, Deborah & Chandra Kruse,, 2022. "Climate change and COP26: Are digital technologies and information management part of the problem or the solution? An editorial reflection and call to action," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Steffen Fahr & Julian Powell & Alice Favero & Anthony J. Giarrusso & Ryan P. Lively & Matthew J. Realff, 2022. "Assessing the physical potential capacity of direct air capture with integrated supply of low‐carbon energy sources," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 170-188, February.
    13. Chmielewska Anna & Sławiński Andrzej, 2021. "Climate crisis, central banks and the IMF reform," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(4), pages 7-27, December.
    14. Danny Otto & Marit Sprenkeling & Ruben Peuchen & Åsta Dyrnes Nordø & Dimitrios Mendrinos & Spyridon Karytsas & Siri Veland & Olympia Polyzou & Martha Lien & Yngve Heggelund & Matthias Gross & Pim Piek, 2022. "On the Organisation of Translation—An Inter- and Transdisciplinary Approach to Developing Design Options for CO 2 Storage Monitoring Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-22, August.
    15. Carè, R. & Weber, O., 2023. "How much finance is in climate finance? A bibliometric review, critiques, and future research directions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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