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The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • D. P. van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Kaj-Ivar Wijst

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University
    Utrecht University)

  • Stijn Marsman

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Maarten Berg

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Andries F. Hof

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Chris D. Jones

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

Abstract

Effective climate policy requires information from various scientific disciplines. Here, we construct a metamodel from climate and integrated assessment models that assesses the emissions budget, costs and uncertainty sources of achieving temperature targets. By calibrating to the model-based literature range, the metamodel goes beyond the parametric uncertainty of individual models. The resulting median estimates for the cumulative abatement costs (at 5% discount rate) for 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets are around US$15 trillion and US$30 trillion, but estimates vary over a wide range (US$10–100 trillion for the 1.5 °C target). The sources determining this uncertainty depend on the climate target stringency. Climate system uncertainty dominates at high warming levels, but uncertainty in emissions reductions costs dominates for the Paris Agreement targets. In fact, costs differences between different socio-economic development paths can be larger than the difference in median estimates for the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets. This simple metamodel helps to explore implications of scenario uncertainty and identify research priorities.

Suggested Citation

  • D. P. van Vuuren & Kaj-Ivar Wijst & Stijn Marsman & Maarten Berg & Andries F. Hof & Chris D. Jones, 2020. "The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(4), pages 329-334, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0732-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0732-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Léo Coppens & Simon Dietz & Frank Venmans, 2024. "Optimal Climate Policy under Exogenous and Endogenous Technical Change: Making Sense of the Different Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 11059, CESifo.
    2. Giannousakis, Anastasis & Hilaire, Jérôme & Nemet, Gregory F. & Luderer, Gunnar & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Rodrigues, Renato & Baumstark, Lavinia & Kriegler, Elmar, 2021. "How uncertainty in technology costs and carbon dioxide removal availability affect climate mitigation pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Mark M. Dekker & Vassilis Daioglou & Robert Pietzcker & Renato Rodrigues & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Francesco Dalla Longa & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Amir Fattahi & Theofano Fotiou & Panagiotis, 2023. "Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1395-1404, December.
    4. Yang Ou & Christopher Roney & Jameel Alsalam & Katherine Calvin & Jared Creason & Jae Edmonds & Allen A. Fawcett & Page Kyle & Kanishka Narayan & Patrick O’Rourke & Pralit Patel & Shaun Ragnauth & Ste, 2021. "Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Zwickl-Bernhard, Sebastian & Auer, Hans, 2022. "Demystifying natural gas distribution grid decommissioning: An open-source approach to local deep decarbonization of urban neighborhoods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    6. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    7. Hillebrand, Elmar & Hillebrand, Marten, 2023. "Who pays the bill? Climate change, taxes, and transfers in a multi-region growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Panos, Evangelos & Glynn, James & Kypreos, Socrates & Lehtilä, Antti & Yue, Xiufeng & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Daniels, David & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Deep decarbonisation pathways of the energy system in times of unprecedented uncertainty in the energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    9. J.-F. Mercure & P. Salas & P. Vercoulen & G. Semieniuk & A. Lam & H. Pollitt & P. B. Holden & N. Vakilifard & U. Chewpreecha & N. R. Edwards & J. E. Vinuales, 2021. "Reframing incentives for climate policy action," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1133-1143, December.
    10. Zhang, Shuo & Yu, Yadong & Kharrazi, Ali & Ma, Tieju, 2023. "How would sustainable transformations in the electricity sector of megacities impact employment levels? A case study of Beijing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    11. Yao An & Ning Liu & Lin Zhang & Huanhuan Zheng, 2022. "Adapting to climate risks through cross-border investments: industrial vulnerability and smart city resilience," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-29, September.
    12. Gungor, Gorkem & Sari, Ramazan, 2022. "Nuclear power and climate policy integration in developed and developing countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    13. Garaffa, Rafael & Cunha, Bruno S.L. & Cruz, Talita & Bezerra, Paula & Lucena, André F.P. & Gurgel, Angelo C., 2021. "Distributional effects of carbon pricing in Brazil under the Paris Agreement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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