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Dynamics of life expectancy and life span equality

Author

Listed:
  • José Manuel Aburto

    (Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, 5000 Odense, Denmark; Lifespan Inequalities Research Group, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 18057 Rostock, Germany)

  • Francisco Villavicencio

    (Department of International Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205)

  • Ugofilippo Basellini

    (Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, 5000 Odense, Denmark; Laboratory of Digital and Computational Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 18057 Rostock, Germany; Mortality, Health and Epidemiology Unit, Institut National d’Études Démographiques (INED), 93322 Aubervilliers, France)

  • Søren Kjærgaard

    (Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, 5000 Odense, Denmark; Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series (CREATES), Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark)

  • James W. Vaupel

    (Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, 5000 Odense, Denmark; Duke University Population Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708; Emeritus Research Group, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 18057 Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

As people live longer, ages at death are becoming more similar. This dual advance over the last two centuries, a central aim of public health policies, is a major achievement of modern civilization. Some recent exceptions to the joint rise of life expectancy and life span equality, however, make it difficult to determine the underlying causes of this relationship. Here, we develop a unifying framework to study life expectancy and life span equality over time, relying on concepts about the pace and shape of aging. We study the dynamic relationship between life expectancy and life span equality with reliable data from the Human Mortality Database for 49 countries and regions with emphasis on the long time series from Sweden. Our results demonstrate that both changes in life expectancy and life span equality are weighted totals of rates of progress in reducing mortality. This finding holds for three different measures of the variability of life spans. The weights evolve over time and indicate the ages at which reductions in mortality increase life expectancy and life span equality: the more progress at the youngest ages, the tighter the relationship. The link between life expectancy and life span equality is especially strong when life expectancy is less than 70 y. In recent decades, life expectancy and life span equality have occasionally moved in opposite directions due to larger improvements in mortality at older ages or a slowdown in declines in midlife mortality. Saving lives at ages below life expectancy is the key to increasing both life expectancy and life span equality.

Suggested Citation

  • José Manuel Aburto & Francisco Villavicencio & Ugofilippo Basellini & Søren Kjærgaard & James W. Vaupel, 2020. "Dynamics of life expectancy and life span equality," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(10), pages 5250-5259, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:5250-5259
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aburto, José Manuel & Basellini, Ugofilippo & Baudisch, Annette & Villavicencio, Francisco, 2022. "Drewnowski’s index to measure lifespan variation: Revisiting the Gini coefficient of the life table," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Jos'e Manuel Aburto & Ugofilippo Basellini & Annette Baudisch & Francisco Villavicencio, 2021. "Drewnowski's index to measure lifespan variation: Revisiting the Gini coefficient of the life table," Papers 2111.11256, arXiv.org.
    3. Aburto, José Manuel & Kristensen, Frederikke Frehr & Sharp, Paul, 2021. "Black-white disparities during an epidemic: Life expectancy and lifespan disparity in the US, 1980–2000," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    4. Suryakant Yadav, 2021. "Progress of Inequality in Age at Death in India: Role of Adult Mortality," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 523-550, July.
    5. Bravo, Jorge M. & Ayuso, Mercedes & Holzmann, Robert & Palmer, Edward, 2023. "Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases: Amending the retirement age," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 161-184.
    6. Andrea Nigri & Elisabetta Barbi & Susanna Levantesi, 2022. "The relationship between longevity and lifespan variation," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(3), pages 481-493, September.
    7. Aburto, José Manuel & di Lego, Vanessa & Riffe, Tim & Kashyap, Ridhi & van Raalte, Alyson & Torrisi, Orsola, 2023. "A global assessment of the impact of violence on lifetime uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118196, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Annette Baudisch & Jesús-Adrián Alvarez, 2021. "Born once, die once: Life table relationships for fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(2), pages 49-66.

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