IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nap/nijefr/2017p76-81.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Arima Intervention Analysis of Monthly Xaf-Ngn Exchange Rates Occasioned By Nigerian Economic Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Ette Harrison Etuk

    (Department of Mathematics, Rivers State University, Port Harcourt, Nigeria)

  • Alapuye Gbolu Eleki

    (Department of Mathematics/Statistics, Port Harcourt Polytechnic, Nigeria)

Abstract

Time-plot of monthly Central African Franc (CFAFr or XAF) and Nigerian Naira (NGN) exchange rates from January 2004 to January 2017 shows a slight positive trend up to May 2016 after which there is an abrupt astronomical rise which calls for intervention. The intervention point is therefore June 2016 around which time the Nigerian economy sank into recession. Â At 1% level of significance the pre-intervention rates are non-stationary and differencing the series once renders it stationary. Â This pre-intervention series has the autocorrelation structure of white noise. This white noise model structure is confirmed by a non-significant ARIMA (6,1,6) fit. Â Post-intervention forecasts are obtained on the basis of the pre-intervention white noise model. Â The difference between post-intervention forecasts and actual observations is modelled to obtain the intervention model. The intervention model is statistically significant and may be useful as basis for intervention in the circumstance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ette Harrison Etuk & Alapuye Gbolu Eleki, 2017. "Arima Intervention Analysis of Monthly Xaf-Ngn Exchange Rates Occasioned By Nigerian Economic Recession," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(4), pages 76-81, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nap:nijefr:2017:p:76-81
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.napublisher.org/pdf-files/NIJEFR-131-76-81.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.napublisher.org/?ic=journal&journal=5&month=04-2017&issue=4&volume=2
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1993. "The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(4), pages 829-844, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammadreza Nahidi & Arash Ketabforoush Badri, 2018. "The Leverage Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth of Iran," Noble International Journal of Business and Management Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(7), pages 53-60, July.
    2. Ette Harrison Etuk & Unyime Patrick Udoudo, 2018. "Intervention Analysis of Daily Indian Rupee/Nigerian Naira Exchange Rates," Noble International Journal of Business and Management Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(6), pages 47-52, June.
    3. Katleho Daniel Makatjane & Edward Kagiso Molefe & Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk, 2018. "The Analysis of the 2008 US Financial Crisis: An Intervention Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(1), pages 59-68.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sylvain Baumann, 2019. "Intelligence Service for a Better Information: Application to a Terrorist Threat," Post-Print hal-02949075, HAL.
    2. Shortland, Anja & Vothknecht, Marc, 2011. "Combating “maritime terrorism” off the coast of Somalia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 133-151.
    3. Ulrich Hendel, 2016. "‘Look like the innocent flower, but be the serpent under’t’: mimicking behaviour of growth-oriented terrorist organizations," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 665-687, September.
    4. Christophe Muller & Pierre Pecher, 2021. "Terrorism, Insurgency, State Repression, and Cycles of Violence," Working Papers halshs-03134347, HAL.
    5. Rehman, Faiz Ur & Nasir, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "What have we learned? Assessing the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 487-495.
    6. Mubashra, Sana & Shafi, Mariuam i, 2018. "The Impact of Counter-terrorism Effectiveness on Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis," MPRA Paper 84847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Entorf, Horst, 2005. "Islamistischer Terrorismus : Analysen, Entwicklungen und Anti-Terrorpolitik aus der Sicht ökonomischer Forschung," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 24551, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    8. Detotto, Claudio & Pulina, Manuela, 2010. "Assessing substitution and complementary effects amongst crime typologies," MPRA Paper 20046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2005. "Targeted Killings: Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Counterterrorism Policy," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2005.02, Bank of Israel.
    10. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(3), pages 307-332, June.
    11. Sylvain Baumann, 2018. "Protection, Technological Transfer and Alliance against Terrorist Conflict," Post-Print hal-02949083, HAL.
    12. Eugen Dimant & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2024. "Paying Them to Hate US: The Effect of US Military Aid on Anti-American Terrorism, 1968–2018," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(663), pages 2772-2802.
    13. Carlos Pestana Barros & Isabel Proenca & Joao Ricardo Faria & Luis Gil-Alana, 2007. "Are Usa Citizens At Risk Of Terrorism In Europe?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 495-507.
    14. Huanhuan Zheng & Chen Li, 2022. "Can money buy friendship?—Evidence from the US and China’s competition for influence through foreign aid," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3224-3245, October.
    15. Tiberiu Dragu, 2017. "On repression and its effectiveness," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(4), pages 599-622, October.
    16. Bejan, Vladimir & Parkin, William S., 2015. "Examining the effect of repressive and conciliatory government actions on terrorism activity in Israel," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 55-58.
    17. Gaibulloev, Khusrav & Hou, Dongfang & Sandler, Todd, 2020. "How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Böhmelt, Tobias & Bove, Vincenzo, 2017. "How Migration Policies Moderate the Diffusion of Terrorism," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 349, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    19. Raechelle Mascarenhas & Todd Sandler, 2014. "Remittances and terrorism: A global analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 331-347, August.
    20. Todd Sandler, 2003. "Collective Action and Transnational Terrorism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 779-802, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nap:nijefr:2017:p:76-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Managing Editor (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.napublisher.org/?ic=journal&journal=5&info=aims .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.