IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mup/actaun/actaun_2017065041325.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Importance of the Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate in the Eurozone and V4

Author

Listed:
  • Patrik Abrahámek

    (Patrik Abrahámek, Department of Finance, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to determine a potential overvaluation and undervaluation of currencies of selected eurozone countries and of the Visegrád Four. The DARER (Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate) model was used for an empirical analysis of the period between 2010-2014 in individual quarters. The advantage of this model is that it explicitly takes into consideration the development of the current account and the debt of the country in connection with the theory of purchasing power parity. The DARER model appears to be a suitable tool for the empirical analysis because, currently, there are many countries in the eurozone with a high debt. In the analysis, data on the current account, debt service payments, GDP, HICP USA and individual researched countries, the exchange rates EUR/USD and CZK/USD, PLN/USD, HUF/USD were used. According to the average overvaluation and undervaluation of currency in all observed states in the Eurozone, in total the overvaluation of the euro against the US dollar was 19.3 %. The overvaluation in individual countries varied from 6.3 % to 33.38 %. These differences in the overvaluation of states' currency against the US dollar were caused mainly by different development of the balance of payments of the country and the country's debt. This can indicate various levels of external imbalances among the states within the monetary union. According to the result of this research, the DARER model was able to identify varying overvaluation and undervaluation of currencies in individual eurozone states and the Visegrád Group, so it can be used by policy makers as one of the indicators of these external imbalances of individual countries in the monetary union.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrik Abrahámek, 2017. "Importance of the Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate in the Eurozone and V4," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(4), pages 1325-1337.
    • Handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2017065041325
    DOI: 10.11118/actaun201765041325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun201765041325.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun201765041325.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11118/actaun201765041325?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Belloc, Marianna & Federici, Daniela, 2010. "A two-country NATREX model for the euro/dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 315-335, March.
    2. Ulf Rinne & Klaus F Zimmermann, 2013. "Is Germany the North Star of Labor Market Policy?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 702-729, December.
    3. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "Growth rates constrained by internal and external imbalances and the role of relative prices: empirical evidence from Portugal," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 275-298.
    6. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 1998/067, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2011. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate and total misalignment: evidence from the euro exchange rate," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 555-578, November.
    8. Frait, Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2002. "Theoretical And Empirical Analysis Of The Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate In Selected Transition Economies During 1994-2001," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 646, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Stein, Jerome L. & Paladino, Giovanna, 1997. "Recent developments in international finance: A guide to research," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1685-1720, December.
    10. William Ellery Channing, 1994. "Change," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 15-15, January.
    11. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, January.
    12. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    13. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2008. "New Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB08-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.
    2. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    3. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2020. "Redistributive innovation policy, inequality, and efficiency," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 532-554, June.
    4. n.a.m, Naseem & m.s, Hamizah, 2013. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 52447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gilles Dufrenot & Laurent Mathieu & Valerie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2006. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 203-229.
    6. I. Paya & A. Duarte & K. Holden, 2003. "On the equilibrium value of the peseta," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 317-335.
    7. niaz ahmad mohd, Naseem & yusop, Zulkornain & masron, Tajul ariffin, 2009. "How did the Malaysian real exchange rate misalign during the 1997 Asian crisis?," MPRA Paper 44922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 713, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    9. Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Modelling the Long–run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 519-537, December.
    10. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," Working Papers 2010.3, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    11. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2002. "The Euro-Dollar exchange rate: Is it fundamental?," European Economy Group Working Papers 16, European Economy Group.
    13. Muhammad Zakaria, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignment And Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan'S Recent Float," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(03), pages 471-489.
    14. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," Economic Research Papers 269632, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    15. Reza Siregar, 2011. "The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp81.
    16. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates?," MPRA Paper 42554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2006. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    18. Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "The Renminbi Equilibrium Exchange Rate: an agnostic view," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01073825, HAL.
    19. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2018. "EQCHANGE: A world database on actual and equilibrium effective exchange rates," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 206-230.
    20. Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 275-292.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2017065041325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://mendelu.cz/en/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.