A European eco-social investment constituency? Unpacking public opinion towards EU green, social investment and social protection policies in 15 countries

After years of deepening of the so-called European social dimension, green policies to reduce pollution and mitigate the consequences of climate change have recently taken pride of place in the EU’s agenda. What do citizens think of EU green and social policy objectives? Do public preferences for these two policy areas relate, or, by contrast, do trade-offs emerge? Recent research has in fact highlighted that an «eco-social divide» – i.e., a trade-off in public support for social and green policies – is likely to emerge in advanced welfare states. This article bridges the debates on eco-social divides and the EU (eco-)social dimension by analysing original data collected in 2021 across 15 member states. Extant empirical studies on the eco-social divide have conflated all kinds of social policies into a single «social» dimension. We distinguish between preferences towards different types of social policies, which find support among different constituencies: social investment (education, activation, childcare) and social protection (cash transfers to those out of work). Our findings reveal that highly educated middle classes form the core of a potential coalition supporting an «eco-social Europe», as they appreciate both EU social investment and green policies. Lower skilled respondents and those most concerned with job security are generally less supportive of green policies, being potentially afraid of their distributional consequences, and favour social protection against both «old» and «new» social risks. Failure to address their concerns may not only lead to increasing inequalities, but also erode the political bases of the EU green agenda.