IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mof/journl/ppr020g.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

European Sovereign Risk: The Knock-on Effects of Default Risk across the Public and Financial Sectors

Author

Listed:
  • Sanae Ohno

    (Professor, Department of Economics, Musashi University)

Abstract

The European financial situation is so serious that it is reminiscent of the so-called "Lehman Shock" (the downturn that followed the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers) in 2008. Member countries of the Europe may be more susceptible to ripple effects triggered by outbreak of a credit crisis in one part of the region because of the following reasons. Europe has the dominant share of financial transactions within in the region, and regional sovereign risk may spread to neighboring countries through securities investment and lending. There is also concern that financial system instability may harm the fiscal health of those countries as a result of tax revenue reduction due to economic slowdown caused by credit crunch, public fund injection into financial institutions, and so on. The foundation of the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism meant the creation of an additional route through which a fiscal crisis breaking out in one country in the region might spread to the entire European region. In this paper, we take into consideration the mutual interdependence among the countries, as well as between the financial and public sectors, and examine the features of the knock-on effects of crisis within the European region. Since the foundation of the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism, the knock-on effects among the Eurozone's core countries have been dramatically heightened, and our research suggests that these knock-on effects have been amplified through concerns about the instability of the financial system. On the other hand, we cannot detect knock-on effects from the Greek sovereign CDS, or Credit Default Swap, which showed an extraordinary rise, which we attribute to shrinking market liquidity against the background of tighter regulations on CDS transactions and confusion regarding the certification of credit events. Even among the core countries, the knock-on effects of the sovereign risk on the CDS of German financial institutions were light, and we may attribute this to the "flight-to-quality" phenomenon having an impact of lowering the German sovereign CDS premiums.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanae Ohno, 2013. "European Sovereign Risk: The Knock-on Effects of Default Risk across the Public and Financial Sectors," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(1), pages 139-170, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mof:journl:ppr020g
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/11217434/www.mof.go.jp/english/pri/publication/pp_review/ppr020/ppr020g.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prasanna Gai & Nicholas Vause, 2006. "Measuring Investors' Risk Appetite," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    2. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    3. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 369, European Central Bank.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian & Frankel, Jeffrey A. (ed.), 2002. "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226184944, September.
    5. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
    7. Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2009. "From Bear Stearns to Anglo Irish: How Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Related to Financial Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 2009/108, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    10. Sebastian Edwards & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2002. "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa02-2.
    11. Junnosuke Shino & Kouji Takahashi, 2010. "Sovereign Credit Default Swaps: Market Developments and Factors behind Price Changes," Bank of Japan Review Series 10-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Muñoz & Maria Vargas & Isabel Marco, 2014. "Environmental Mutual Funds: Financial Performance and Managerial Abilities," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 551-569, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joanna Olbrys & Elzbieta Majewska, 2016. "Crisis periods and contagion effects in the CEE stock markets: the influence of the 2007 US subprime crisis," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(2), pages 124-137.
    2. Sergio Andenmatten & Felix Brill, 2011. "Measuring Co-Movements of CDS Premia during the Greek Debt Crisis," Diskussionsschriften dp1104, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    3. Andres Kuusk & Tiiu Paas, 2010. "Contagion Of Financial Crises With Special Emphasis On Cee Economies: A Metaanalysis," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 66, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    4. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2015. "Regional integration of the East Asian stock markets: An empirical assessment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 136-160.
    5. Billio, Monica & Caporin, Massimiliano, 2010. "Market linkages, variance spillovers, and correlation stability: Empirical evidence of financial contagion," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2443-2458, November.
    6. Vergote, Olivier, 2016. "Credit risk spillover between financials and sovereigns in the euro area during 2007-2015," Working Paper Series 1898, European Central Bank.
    7. Samarakoon, Lalith P., 2011. "Stock market interdependence, contagion, and the U.S. financial crisis: The case of emerging and frontier markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 724-742.
    8. Keskinsoy, Bilal, 2017. "Taxi, Takeoff and Landing: Behavioural Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 78129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Why Should Emerging Economies Give up National Currencies: A Case for 'Institutions Substitution'," NBER Working Papers 8950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Andres KUUSK & Tiiu Paas & Karmen Viikmaa, 2011. "Financial contagion of the 2008 crisis: is there any evidence of financial contagion from the US to the Baltic states," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 2, pages 61-76, December.
    11. Chuliá, Helena & Fernández, Julián & Uribe, Jorge M., 2018. "Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 83-102.
    12. V. Rasskazov E. & В. Рассказов Е., 2016. "Измерение Финансового Заражения На Примере Моделирования Риска Банковского Дефолта // The Methodology For Measuring Financial Contagion: The Case Study Of Bank Default Risk Simulation," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 20(3), pages 54-61.
    13. Ms. Edda Zoli & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2009/222, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Seung-Gwan Baek & Chi-Young Song, 2016. "On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 405-445, July.
    15. Pragidis, I.C. & Aielli, G.P. & Chionis, D. & Schizas, P., 2015. "Contagion effects during financial crisis: Evidence from the Greek sovereign bonds market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 127-138.
    16. Burzala, Milda Maria, 2016. "Contagion effects in selected European capital markets during the financial crisis of 2007–2009," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 556-571.
    17. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”," IREA Working Papers 201219, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2012.
    18. Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "¿Por qué deben las economías emergentes renunciar a su moneda nacional? El argumento a favor," Research Department Publications 4310, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    19. Lee, Ha Yan & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Rigobon, Roberto, 2004. "Once again, is openness good for growth?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 451-472, December.
    20. V. Rasskazov E. & В. Рассказов Е., 2016. "Эволюция Эффекта Финансового Заражения В Еврозоне В Период Долгового Кризиса // Evolution Of Financial Contagion In The Context Of The European Debt Crisis," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 20(2), pages 99-105.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mof:journl:ppr020g. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Policy Research Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/prigvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.