IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mnb/finrev/v23y2024i2p56-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrad Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis

Author

Listed:
  • Tamas Ginter

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Andrassy University Budapest)

  • Patrik Tischler

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

After a number of shocks (including the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, in particular), global trade has undergone a transformation that is characterised by deglobalisation and decoupling tendencies. In this paper, we use descriptive statistics to analyse the short-term effects of exogenous shocks on international trade in the Visegrad countries. We find that between 2019 and 2022, deglobalisation tendencies were not persistent in the region. The trade-to-GDP ratio has exceeded the prepandemic levels (thus, the region is more globalised than in 2019), despite shortterm declines induced by the various shocks. While the region trades mainly with politically-economically aligned partners, the proportion of international trade with non-Western partners has also grown over the past four years. Trade with Russia has declined significantly since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, but decoupling from China has not started. However, certain country differences apply.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamas Ginter & Patrik Tischler, 2024. "Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrad Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 23(2), pages 56-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:23:y:2024:i:2:p:56-82
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://en-hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/letoltes/fer-23-2-st2-ginter-tischler.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petra Vujakovic, 2009. "How to Measure Globalisation? A New Globalisation Index (NGI)," WIFO Working Papers 343, WIFO.
    2. Harold James, 2018. "Deglobalization: The Rise of Disembedded Unilateralism," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 219-237, November.
    3. Michael A. Witt, 2019. "De-globalization: Theories, predictions, and opportunities for international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 50(7), pages 1053-1077, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexandre Bohas & Michael J. Morley & Aseem Kinra, 2021. "Perlmutter revisited: Revealing the anomic mindset," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(9), pages 1695-1723, December.
    2. Lin, Wenlian & Cao, Jerry & Zhou, Sili & Li, Yong, 2024. "Political affinity, multilateralism, and foreign direct investment worldwide," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Satish Nambisan & Yadong Luo, 2021. "Toward a loose coupling view of digital globalization," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(8), pages 1646-1663, October.
    4. Simon Hartmann & Thomas Lindner & Jakob Müllner & Jonas Puck, 2022. "Beyond the nation-state: Anchoring supranational institutions in international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(6), pages 1282-1306, August.
    5. Tiina Ritvala & Rebecca Piekkari, 2021. "Geopolitics of the knowledge-based economy," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(2), pages 334-337, March.
    6. Cheung, Zeerim & Aalto, Eero & Nevalainen, Pasi, 2020. "Institutional Logics and the Internationalization of a State-Owned Enterprise: Evaluation of International Venture Opportunities by Telecom Finland 1987–1998," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(6).
    7. Shaker A. Zahra & Olga Petricevic & Yadong Luo, 2022. "Toward an action-based view of dynamic capabilities for international business," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(4), pages 583-600, June.
    8. Jing Li & Daniel M. Shapiro & Anastasia Ufimtseva & Peng Zhang, 2024. "Techno-nationalism and cross-border acquisitions in an age of geopolitical rivalry," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 55(9), pages 1190-1203, December.
    9. Bian, Bo & Meier, Jean-Marie & Xu, Ting, 2021. "Cross-Border Institutions and the Globalization of Innovation," LawFin Working Paper Series 23, Goethe University, Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance (LawFin).
    10. Godinho, Manuel Mira & Simões, Vítor Corado, 2023. "The Tech Cold War: What can we learn from the most dynamic patent classes?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6).
    11. Robert Grosse & Jonas Gamso & Roy C. Nelson, 2021. "China’s Rise, World Order, and the Implications for International Business," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-26, March.
    12. Sara Casagrande & Bruno Dallago, 2024. "Exploring Global Economy Evolution: Clusters and Patterns," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Jirjahn, Uwe, 2024. "Corporate Globalization and Worker Representation," IZA Discussion Papers 16727, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Mike W. Peng & Joyce C. Wang & Nishant Kathuria & Jia Shen & Miranda J. Welbourne Eleazar, 2023. "Toward an institution-based paradigm," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 353-382, June.
    15. Jiatao Li & Ari Van Assche & Lee Li & Gongming Qian, 2022. "Foreign direct investment along the Belt and Road: A political economy perspective," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(5), pages 902-919, July.
    16. Sjoerd Beugelsdijk, 2022. "Capitalizing on the uniqueness of international business: Towards a theory of place, space, and organization," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(9), pages 2050-2067, December.
    17. Anis Benabed, 2024. "The Recoil of Globalization and the Rising Aspects of Slowbalization, De-Globalization, Re-Globalization and Sustainability for Business and Companies," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 22-30, August.
    18. Wu, Sihong & Chirico, Francesco & Fan, Di & Ding, Jiayan & Su, Yiyi, 2024. "Foreign market exit in family firms: Do historical military and cultural frictions matter?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(1).
    19. Adams, Kweku & Attah-Boakye, Rexford & Yu, Honglan & Chu, Irene & Mali, Dafydd, 2024. "African Continental Free Trade Area and Regional Trade in ICT and Digital Technologies," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(4).
    20. José Balsa-Barreiro & Aymeric Vié & Alfredo J. Morales & Manuel Cebrián, 2020. "Deglobalization in a hyper-connected world," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-4, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    deglobalisation; decoupling; Central and Eastern Europe; Visegrad countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:23:y:2024:i:2:p:56-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Morvay Endre The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Morvay Endre to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.