IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mje/mjejnl/v9y2013i3p57-64.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing The Trilemma Hypothesis And Measuring Their Effects On Inflation, Growth And Volatility For Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Hsing

Abstract

This paper finds evidence of the trilemma for Poland. Exchange rate stability, monetary independence and financial integration have a tradeoff. Mainly because of its plan to join the ERM II and pursuing for inflation targeting, the policy combination of exchange rate stability and monetary independence has been prevalent since 1991. More exchange rate stability raises the growth rate but also increases output volatility. More financial integration reduces the inflation rate, inflation volatility and output volatility. More monetary independence does not affect inflation, growth and volatility. Hence, these impacts may be considered in reviewing and selecting a policy combination.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Hsing, 2013. "Testing The Trilemma Hypothesis And Measuring Their Effects On Inflation, Growth And Volatility For Poland," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 9(3), pages 57-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:mje:mjejnl:v:9:y:2013:i:3:p:57-64
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.mnje.com/mje/2013/v09-n03/mje_2013_v09-n03-a14.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://repec.mnje.com/mje/2013/v09-n03/mje_2013_v09-n03-a14.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taner Mehmet & Sezen Bülent & Mıhcı Hakan, 2011. "An Alternative Human Development Index Considering Unemployment," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 45-60, April.
    2. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    5. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
    6. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    7. Williams Colin, 2012. "Cross-National Variations in the Under-Reporting of Wages in South-East Europe: A Result of Over-Regulation or Under-Regulation?," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 7(1), pages 53-61, April.
    8. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    9. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 149-172, Summer.
    10. Joshua Aizenman & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2013. "Financial Trilemma in China and a Comparative Analysis with India," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 123-146, May.
    11. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
    12. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    13. Aizenman, Joshua, 2010. "The Impossible Trinity (aka The Policy Trilemma)," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9k29n6qn, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
    15. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Ms. Anne Marie Gulde & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 1995/121, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Exchange Rates and Cohesion: Historical Perspectives and Political‐Economy Considerations," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 797-822, December.
    17. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 480-486, May.
    18. Vadnjal Jaka & Zupan Blaž, 2011. "Family Business as a Career Opportunity for Women," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 23-32, November.
    19. Calvo, Guillermo A., 2006. "Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1947, Inter-American Development Bank.
    20. Bogdan Căpraru & Iulian Ihnatov, 2011. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Arrangements On Transmission Of Interest Rates And Monetary Policy Independence: Evidence From A Group Of New Eu Member Countries "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 71-81, november.
    21. Wallace, Elaine & de Chernatony, Leslie & Buil, Isabel, 2013. "Building bank brands: How leadership behavior influences employee commitment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 165-171.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hyeon-seung Huh & Philip Inyeob Ji & Cyn-Young Park, 2016. "The ‘trilemma’ hypothesis and policy implications for Fiji," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 30(1), pages 99-119, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu Hsing, 2012. "Impacts of the Trilemma Policies on Inflation, Growth and Volatility in Greece," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 373-378.
    2. Hsing, Yu, 2013. "Impacts Of The Three Trilemma Policies On Inflation, Growth And Volatility For Ten Selected Asian And Pacific Countries," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 9(1-2), January.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2012. "Trilemma policy convergence patterns and output volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 269-285.
    4. Yu HSING, 2012. "Effects of the Trilemma Policies on Inflation, Growth and Volatility in Bulgaria," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(569)), pages 49-58, April.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
    6. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2016. "East Asian Economies and Financial Globalization In the Post-Crisis World," NBER Working Papers 22268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ito, Hiro & Kawai, Masahiro, 2014. "Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination," ADBI Working Papers 456, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2014. "Living with the trilemma constraint: Relative trilemma policy divergence, crises, and output losses for developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 28-51.
    9. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2014. "The More Divergent, the Better? Lessons on Trilemma Policies and Crises for Asia," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 31(2), pages 21-54, September.
    10. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    11. Yu Hsing, 2012. "Test of the Impossible Trinity Hypothesis for Five Selected Countries in the Asian and Pacific Regions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 616-623.
    12. Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 283-299.
    13. Majumder Sayantan Bandhu & Nag Ranjanendra Narayan, 2017. "Policy Trilemma in India: Exchange Rate Stability, Independent Monetary Policy and Capital Account Openness," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-13, September.
    14. Chee-Hong Law & Chee-Lip Tee & Wei-Theng Lau, 2019. "The Impacts of Financial Integration on the Linkages Between Monetary Independence and Foreign Exchange Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 212-235, April.
    15. Layal Mansour, 2014. "The Power of International Reserves: the impossible trinity becomes possible," Working Papers halshs-01054614, HAL.
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    17. Hyeon-seung Huh & Philip Inyeob Ji & Cyn-Young Park, 2016. "The ‘trilemma’ hypothesis and policy implications for Fiji," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 30(1), pages 99-119, May.
    18. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "The accumulation of foreign exchange by central banks: Fear of capital mobility?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 409-427.
    19. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2012. "The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2023. "The Impacts of Financial Crises on the Trilemma Configurations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 479-517, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mje:mjejnl:v:9:y:2013:i:3:p:57-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nikola Draskovic Jelcic (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.mnje.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.