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The Fragility of Turkish Economy from the Perspective of Oil Dependency

Author

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  • Eren Yildiz

    (Yildirim Beyazit University, Turkey)

  • Merve Karacaer Ulusoy

    (Yildirim Beyazit University, Turkey)

Abstract

In an emerging economy, energy is a crucial input. Turkey as an oil dependent country, the volatility of oil price might affect more than thought. In this study, the impact of oil price changes in Turkish macroeconomy has been examined. A VAR model is built by using quarterly data from the first quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2013. Variables used in the model are Brent oil price, gross fixed capital formation, interest rate, us GDP and inflation. We believe that the analysis has demonstrated the fragility of Turkish economy to oil price volatility with its significant results in the relationship between oil price and main macroeconomic indicators. This study also shows the incredible need of sustainable energy policies to make a country’s economy stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Eren Yildiz & Merve Karacaer Ulusoy, 2015. "The Fragility of Turkish Economy from the Perspective of Oil Dependency," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 13(3 (Fall)), pages 253-266.
    • Handle: RePEc:mgt:youmgt:v:13:y:2015:i:3:p:253-266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Merve Karacaer-Ulusoy & Ayhan Kapusuzoglu, 2017. "The Dynamics of Financial and Macroeconomic Determinants in Natural Gas and Crude Oil Markets: Evidence from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Gulf Cooperation Council/Organization," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 167-187.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price shocks; oil dependency; Turkey; macroeconomy; vector auto regressive model; gross fixed capital formation; inflation; interest rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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