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Takeover Prediction Models and Portfolio Strategies: A Multinomial Approach

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  • Ronan G. Powell

    (University of New South Wales, Australia)

Abstract

This paper uses a multinomial framework to develop several takeover prediction models. The motivation for this approach lies with Morck, Shleifer and Vishny (1988), who note that separate considerations are appropriate for predicting which firms are subject to hostile (disciplinary) and friendly (synergistic) takeovers in the USA. In a typical binomial setting, in which takeover targets are treated as belonging to one homogenous group, differences between hostile and friendly targets are ignored. This may result in biased takeover probabilities and poor predictive performance. Using UK data, the results from this paper show that the characteristics of hostile and friendly targets do differ, particularly in terms of firm size. The multinomial models also have higher significance and explanatory power when compared to the binomial models. Furthermore, when the models are tested in an investment portfolio setting, the results suggest that a strategy of predicting hostile targets only, beats a benchmark control portfolio of firms of a similar size and market-to-book.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronan G. Powell, 2004. "Takeover Prediction Models and Portfolio Strategies: A Multinomial Approach," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 8(1-2), pages 35-72, March-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:8:y:2004:i:1-2:p:35-72
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    Cited by:

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    2. Humphery-Jenner, M., 2011. "Internal and External Discipline Following Securities Class Actions," Other publications TiSEM 9bcb5c91-4bab-431f-9891-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Rodrigues, Bruno Dore & Stevenson, Maxwell J., 2013. "Takeover prediction using forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 628-641.
    4. Styliani Panetsidou & Angelos Synapis & Ioannis Tsalavoutas, 2022. "Price run-ups and insider trading laws under different regulatory environments," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 601-639, August.
    5. Mehrez Ben Slama & Dhafer Saidane & Hassouna Fedhila, 2012. "How to identify targets in the M&A banking operations? Case of cross-border strategies in Europe by line of activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 209-240, February.
    6. Olha Bielienkova & Anton Moholivets & Yana Loktionova, 2021. "Measurement Of The Level Of Economic Security Of Enterprises By The Indicator Of The Attractiveness For Hostile Takeovers," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 7(5).
    7. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Vinay B. Nair & Kose John, 2009. "Takeovers and the Cross-Section of Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 1409-1445, April.
    8. Papanastasopoulos, George, 2005. "Using Option Theory and Fundamentals to Assessing Default Risk of Listed Firms," MPRA Paper 453, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
    9. Humphery-Jenner, M., 2011. "Internal and External Discipline Following Securities Class Actions," Discussion Paper 2011-044, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Erik Lehmann & Thorsten Braun & Sebastian Krispin, 2012. "Entrepreneurial human capital, complementary assets, and takeover probability," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 37(5), pages 589-608, October.
    11. Humphery-Jenner, M., 2011. "Internal and External Discipline Following Securities Class Actions," Other publications TiSEM 072318eb-d214-4c7a-ac7a-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Gurvinder Brar & Daniel Giamouridis & Manolis Liodakis, 2009. "Predicting European Takeover Targets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(2), pages 430-450, March.
    13. Dimitris Andriosopoulos & Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Fotios Pasiouras, 2016. "Prediction of open market share repurchases and portfolio returns: evidence from France, Germany and the UK," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 387-416, February.
    14. Humphery-Jenner, Mark L., 2012. "Internal and external discipline following securities class actions," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 151-179.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    multinomial logit; takeover prediction; abnormal returns; size effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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