IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mfj/journl/v5y2001i1p59-86.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can the Forecasts Generated from E/P Ratio and Bond Yield be Used to Beat Stock Markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Wing-Keung Wong

    (Hong Kong Baptist University)

  • Boon-Kiat Chew

    (Independent Economic Analysis (Holdings) Limited)

  • Douglas Sikorsk

    (National University of Singapore, Singapore)

Abstract

This paper tests the performance of stock market forecasts derived from technical analysis by means of a specific indicator. The indicator is computed from E/P ratios and bond yields. Several stock markets are studied over a 20-year period. Two test statistics are introduced to utilize the indicator. The results show that the forecasts generated from the indicator would enable investors to escape most of the crashes and catch most of the bull runs. The trading signals provided by the indicator can generate profits that are significantly better than the buy-and-hold strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wing-Keung Wong & Boon-Kiat Chew & Douglas Sikorsk, 2001. "Can the Forecasts Generated from E/P Ratio and Bond Yield be Used to Beat Stock Markets?," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 59-86, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:5:y:2001:i:1:p:59-86
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/MJ~674~p16t85l56p1uvs7dk70v0fnql4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/googleScholar/694.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    2. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    3. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-425, October.
    4. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    5. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. "Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-182, March.
    6. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    7. Ella Mae Matsumura & Kam†Wah Tsui & Wing†Keung Wong, 1990. "An extended multinomial†Dirichlet model for error bounds for dollar†unit sampling," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), pages 485-500, March.
    8. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
    9. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    10. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
    11. Wong, Wing-Keung & Li, Chi-Kwong, 1999. "A note on convex stochastic dominance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 293-300, March.
    12. Jensen, Michael C & Bennington, George A, 1970. "Random Walks and Technical Theories: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 469-482, May.
    13. Grossman, Sanford J, 1976. "On the Efficiency of Competitive Stock Markets Where Trades Have Diverse Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 573-585, May.
    14. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-253, May.
    15. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-237, March.
    16. Wong, Wing-keung & Miller, Robert B, 1990. "Repeated Time Series Analysis of ARIMA-Noise Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 243-250, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen Huu Hau & Tran Trung Tinh & Hoa Anh Tuong & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Review of Matrix Theory with Applications in Education and Decision Sciences," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(1), pages 28-69, March.
    2. Antonis Demos & George Vasillelis, 2007. "U.K. Stock Market Inefficiencies and the Risk Premium," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 11(1-2), pages 97-122, March-Jun.
    3. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology: Connections," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, March.
    4. Wing-keung Wong & Raymond Chan, 2004. "On the estimation of cost of capital and its reliability," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 365-372.
    5. Kim-Hung Pho & Thi Diem-Chinh Ho & Tuan-Kiet Tran & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Moment Generating Function, Expectation And Variance Of Ubiquitous Distributions With Applications In Decision Sciences: A Review," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(2), pages 65-150, June.
    6. Tran Thai Ha Nguyen & Massoud Moslehpour & Thi Thuy Van Vo & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "State Ownership and Risk-Taking Behavior: An Empirical Approach to Get Better Profitability, Investment, and Trading Strategies for Listed Corporates in Vietnam," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-21, June.
    7. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology: Connections," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ranko Jelic & Richard Briston & Chris Mallin, 1999. "Gambling Banks and Firm Financing in Transition Economies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(4), pages 253-282, December.
    2. Wing-Keung Wong & Meher Manzur & Boon-Kiat Chew, 2003. "How rewarding is technical analysis? Evidence from Singapore stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 543-551.
    3. Osman Kilic & Joseph M. Marks & Kiseok Nam, 2022. "Predictable asset price dynamics, risk-return tradeoff, and investor behavior," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 749-791, August.
    4. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    5. Wong, Wing-Keung & Du, Jun & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2005. "Do the technical indicators reward chartists? A study on the stock markets of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 1(2), pages 1-23.
    6. Michael McAleer & John Suen & Wing Keung Wong, 2016. "Profiteering from the Dot-Com Bubble, Subprime Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 257-279, September.
    7. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    8. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    9. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, October.
    10. Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Weller, Paul A. & Dunham, Lee M., 2009. "Price trends and patterns in technical analysis: A theoretical and empirical examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1089-1100, June.
    11. Lu, Tsung-Hsun, 2014. "The profitability of candlestick charting in the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 65-78.
    12. Wang, Zi-Mei & Chiao, Chaoshin & Chang, Ya-Ting, 2012. "Technical analyses and order submission behaviors: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 109-128.
    13. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    14. Minye Zhang & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Is the Mean Return of Hotel Real Estate Stocks Apt to Overreact to Past Performance?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 497-543, May.
    15. Guanqing Liu, 2019. "Technical Trading Behaviour: Evidence from Chinese Rebar Futures Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 669-704, August.
    16. Walid Omrane & Hervé Oppens, 2006. "The performance analysis of chart patterns: Monte Carlo simulation and evidence from the euro/dollar foreign exchange market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 947-971, January.
    17. Hon, Mark T. & Tonks, Ian, 2003. "Momentum in the UK stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 43-70, February.
    18. BEN OMRANE, Walid & VAN OPPEN, Hervé, 2004. "The predictive success and profitability of chart patterns in the Euro/Dollar foreign exchange market," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2004035, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    19. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond yield; E/P ratio; interest rate; standardized yield differential; yield differential;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:5:y:2001:i:1:p:59-86. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theodossiou Panayiotis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfsssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.