IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mfj/journl/v19y2015i3p169-221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Idiosyncratic Volatility, Momentum, Liquidity, and Expected Stock Returns in Developed and Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Lorne Switzer

    (Concordia University, Canada)

  • Alan Picard

    (Concordia University, Canada)

Abstract

This paper re-examines the link between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns for a large sample of firms in both developed and emerging markets. Recent studies using Fama-French three-factor models have shown a negative relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns for developed markets. This relationship has not been studied to date for emerging markets. This study relates the current-month's idiosyncratic volatility to the subsequent month's stock returns for a sample of both developed and emerging markets expanding benchmark factors by including both a momentum and a systematic liquidity risk component. Using a five-factor model, the results suggest that idiosyncratic risk does not play a role on stock returns for most of the developed markets analyzed. In contrast, the paper shows, for the first time, that idiosyncratic risk is positively related to month-ahead expected returns for many emerging markets for this model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorne Switzer & Alan Picard, 2015. "Idiosyncratic Volatility, Momentum, Liquidity, and Expected Stock Returns in Developed and Emerging Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 19(3), pages 169-221, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:19:y:2015:i:3:p:169-221
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/MJ~0~p1a3bphu87qr2k18vlq1b36o8u4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/googleScholar/1106.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael L. Lemmon & Karl V. Lins, 2003. "Ownership Structure, Corporate Governance, and Firm Value: Evidence from the East Asian Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1445-1468, August.
    2. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "A Survey of Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 737-783, June.
    3. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2007. "Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1783-1831, November.
    4. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 29-58, March.
    5. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim & Lauterbach, Beni, 1997. "Market microstructure and securities values: Evidence from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 365-390, September.
    6. Lins, Karl V., 2003. "Equity Ownership and Firm Value in Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 159-184, March.
    7. Denis, Diane K. & McConnell, John J., 2003. "International Corporate Governance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 1-36, March.
    8. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "The relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns in G7 countries," Working Papers 2006-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    10. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:3:p:975-1008 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Wei Huang & Qianqiu Liu & S. Ghon Rhee & Liang Zhang, 2010. "Return Reversals, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 147-168, January.
    13. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    14. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    15. Tarun Chordia & Sahn-Wook Huh & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2009. "Theory-Based Illiquidity and Asset Pricing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3629-3668, September.
    16. Fu, Fangjian, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 24-37, January.
    17. Steve Fan & Scott Opsal & Linda Yu, 2015. "Equity Anomalies and Idiosyncratic Risk Around the World," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 19(1), pages 33-75, March.
    18. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July.
    19. Brown, Gregory & Kapadia, Nishad, 2007. "Firm-specific risk and equity market development," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 358-388, May.
    20. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2012. "Aggregate Idiosyncratic Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1155-1185, December.
    21. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
    22. Kuntara Pukthuanthong-Le & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2009. "Idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns: a cross country analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1269-1281.
    23. Umutlu, Mehmet & Akdeniz, Levent & Altay-Salih, Aslihan, 2010. "The degree of financial liberalization and aggregated stock-return volatility in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 509-521, March.
    24. Wei, Steven X. & Zhang, Chu, 2005. "Idiosyncratic risk does not matter: A re-examination of the relationship between average returns and average volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 603-621, March.
    25. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Daouk, Hazem & Jorgenson, Brian & Kehr, Carl-Heinrich, 2000. "When an event is not an event: the curious case of an emerging market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 69-101, January.
    26. Stulz, Rene M, 1981. "On the Effects of Barriers to International Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 923-934, September.
    27. Levy, Haim, 1978. "Equilibrium in an Imperfect Market: A Constraint on the Number of Securities in the Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 643-658, September.
    28. Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici & Xuemin (Sterling) Yan & Zhe Zhang, 2005. "Does Idiosyncratic Risk Really Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 905-929, April.
    29. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    30. Cheng, Shuenn-Ren & Shiu, Cheng-Yi, 2007. "Investor protection and capital structure: International evidence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 30-44, February.
    31. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    32. John M. Griffin, 2002. "Are the Fama and French Factors Global or Country Specific?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 783-803.
    33. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    34. Gilbert V. Nartea & Bert D. Ward & Lee J. Yao, 2011. "Idiosyncratic volatility and cross‐sectional stock returns in Southeast Asian stock markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 51(4), pages 1031-1054, December.
    35. Francesca Carrieri & Ines Chaieb & Vihang Errunza, 2013. "Do Implicit Barriers Matter for Globalization?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1694-1739.
    36. Ephraim Clark & Radu Tunaru, 2001. "Emerging Markets: Investing with Political Risk," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 155-173, September.
    37. Eric Girard & Amit Sinha, 2006. "Does Total Risk Matter? The Case of Emerging Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 10(1-2), pages 117-151, March-Jun.
    38. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    39. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    40. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    41. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    42. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    43. Geert Bekaert & Campbell Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad, 2003. "Equity market liberalization in emerging markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Jul), pages 53-74.
    44. Chang, Eric C. & Dong, Sen, 2006. "Idiosyncratic volatility, fundamentals, and institutional herding: Evidence from the Japanese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-154, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lorne N. Switzer & Cagdas Tahaoglu & Yun Zhao, 2017. "Volatility measures as predictors of extreme returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 1-10, November.
    2. Binghui Wu & Tingting Duan & Jianmin He, 2018. "Dynamics Evolution of Trading Strategies of Investors in Financial Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 743-760, April.
    3. Laura Arenas & Ana Maria Gil-Lafuente, 2021. "Regime Switching in High-Tech ETFs: Idiosyncratic Volatility and Return," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-25, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tariq Aziz & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2017. "Idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns: Indian evidence," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1420998-142, January.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, October.
    3. Aboulamer, Anas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-36.
    4. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    5. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    6. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Is there a risk-return tradeoff in the corporate bond market? Time-series and cross-sectional evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1017-1037.
    7. Hassen Raîs, 2016. "Idiosyncratic Risk and the Cross-Section of European Insurance Equity Returns," Post-Print hal-01764088, HAL.
    8. Waszczuk, Antonina, 2013. "A risk-based explanation of return patterns—Evidence from the Polish stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 186-210.
    9. Stanislav Bozhkov & Habin Lee & Uthayasankar Sivarajah & Stella Despoudi & Monomita Nandy, 2020. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of stock returns: the role of mean-reverting idiosyncratic volatility," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 419-452, November.
    10. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    11. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Wu, Ji, 2013. "Is there a volatility effect in the Hong Kong stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 119-135.
    12. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    13. Mu-Shun Wang, 2013. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Expected Stock Returns for Exploring the Relationship with Panel Threshold Regression," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(2), pages 113-129, May.
    14. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Wu, Ji & Liu, Zhentao, 2013. "Does idiosyncratic volatility matter in emerging markets? Evidence from China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 137-160.
    15. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Cao, Xu & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan, 2019. "Do idiosyncratic skewness and kurtosis really matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Nusret Cakici & Isil Erol & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 2014. "Tracking the Evolution of Idiosyncratic Risk and Cross-Sectional Expected Returns for US REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 415-440, April.
    17. Switzer, Lorne N. & Tahaoglu, Cagdas & Zhao, Yun, 2017. "Volatility measures as predictors of extreme returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-10.
    18. Gerlach, Richard & Obaydin, Ivan & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2015. "The impact of leverage on the idiosyncratic risk and return relationship of REITs around the financial crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 207-219.
    19. Jun-Biao Lina & Ping-Yeh Su, 0. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and Liquidity Risk: How they have Explanatory Power in Stock Returns," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 0, pages 2.
    20. Esther Eiling, 2013. "Industry-Specific Human Capital, Idiosyncratic Risk, and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 43-84, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    idiosyncratic volatility; expected returns; developed vs. emerging markets; asset pricing; multifactor models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:19:y:2015:i:3:p:169-221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theodossiou Panayiotis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfsssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.