IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v52y2016i3p658-673.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship Between Sovereign Spreads and International Reserves: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Inci Gumus

Abstract

International reserves have been put forward as an important factor affecting sovereign spreads in the literature. This article empirically analyzes whether the relationship between international reserves and sovereign spreads depends on exchange rate policy in emerging markets. The analysis is carried out using exchange rate classifications based on both the officially declared regimes and the actual exchange rate behavior. The results show that international reserves reduce sovereign spreads for all levels of exchange rate flexibility using both classifications. Reserves have a similar effect on spreads for all exchange rate categories, except for hard pegs, under which the effect is larger.

Suggested Citation

  • Inci Gumus, 2016. "The Relationship Between Sovereign Spreads and International Reserves: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 658-673, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:3:p:658-673
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2014.998534
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2014.998534
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2014.998534?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nadeem Ul Haque & Manmohan S. Kumar & Nelson Mark & Donald J. Mathieson, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 688-724, December.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    4. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "International Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp03, IIIS.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    6. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    7. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2012. "The Causes and Extent of Split Sovereign Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 4-24, January.
    8. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Baek, In-Mee & Bandopadhyaya, Arindam & Du, Chan, 2005. "Determinants of market-assessed sovereign risk: Economic fundamentals or market risk appetite?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-548, June.
    10. Adolfo Barajas & Lennart Erickson & Roberto Steiner, 2008. "Fear of Declaring: Do Markets Care What Countries Say About Their Exchange Rate Policies?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 445-480, July.
    11. Seungyeon Won & Young Sup Yun & Byoung Joon Kim, 2013. "Emerging Bond Market Volatility and Country Spreads," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 82-100, January.
    12. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    13. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    14. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    15. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2003. "The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: What is going on?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 370-400, September.
    16. Kaminsky, Graciela L., 2006. "Currency crises: Are they all the same?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 503-527, April.
    17. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2008. "The cost of reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 39-42, July.
    18. Changkyu Choi & Seung-Gwan Baek, 2008. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Reserves," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 105-129.
    19. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati, 2011. "Political and Fiscal Risk Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 251-263, May.
    20. Mr. Balazs Csonto & Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2013. "Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets: Local Fundamentals and Global Factors vs. Ever-Changing Misalignments," IMF Working Papers 2013/164, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Min, Hong-Ghi & Lee, Duk-Hee & Nam, Changi & Park, Myeong-Cheol & Nam, Sang-Ho, 2003. "Determinants of emerging-market bond spreads: Cross-country evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 271-286, December.
    22. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    23. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
    24. Mendoza, Ronald U., 2004. "International reserve-holding in the developing world: self insurance in a crisis-prone era?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 61-82, March.
    25. Martinez, Lisana B. & Terceño, Antonio & Teruel, Mercedes, 2013. "Sovereign bond spreads determinants in Latin American countries: Before and during the XXI financial crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 60-75.
    26. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    27. Mr. Joshua Aizenman & Mr. Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary vs. Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2005/198, International Monetary Fund.
    28. International Monetary Fund, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Working Papers 1996/009, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Iva Petrova & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals vs Financial Stress," IMF Working Papers 2010/281, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Inci Gumus, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Market Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 649-663, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Inci Gumus, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Market Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 649-663, September.
    2. Mr. Sunil Sharma & Woon Gyu Choi & Maria Strömqvist, 2007. "Capital Flows, Financial Integration, and International Reserve Holdings: The Recent Experience of Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2007/151, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jane Mpapalika & Christopher Malikane, 2019. "The Determinants of Sovereign Risk Premium in African Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    5. Andrew J. Filardo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Prolonged Reserves Accumulation, Credit Booms, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 364-381, February.
    6. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
    7. Hajer Dachraoui & Mounir Smida & Maamar Sebri, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 15-33.
    8. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    9. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    10. Eguren Martin, Fernando, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and current account adjustment: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 69-93.
    11. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    13. Carl Grekou, 2016. "Does the exchange rate regime shape currency misalignments in emerging and developing countries?," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Gina Christelle Pieters, 2017. "Bitcoin Reveals Exchange Rate Manipulation and Detects Capital Controls," 2017 Papers ppi307, Job Market Papers.
    15. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "The accumulation of foreign exchange by central banks: Fear of capital mobility?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 409-427.
    16. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    18. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2009. "A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 447-481.
    19. Kubota, Megumi, 2011. "Assessing real exchange rate misalignments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5925, The World Bank.
    20. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou, 2016. "Currency Misalignments in emerging and developing countries: reassessing the role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Post-Print hal-01549902, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:3:p:658-673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.