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Forecasting Inflation in China

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  • Qizhi He
  • Conglai Fan

Abstract

We discuss theoretical foundations of inflation dynamics and which indicators can measure the influencing factor of China’s inflation rates and select an indicator capable of providing additional information. We next select further from the indicators, examining previous recursive forecasts based on the special historical background of the preparatory projects for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and the economic structure model. Then forecasting effects of the thirty-six integrated models, which construct indicators of various factors subjected to the previous forecast inspection, are researched. Finally, some conclusions, such as which integrated models can be used to forecast China’s inflation rates, are determined.

Suggested Citation

  • Qizhi He & Conglai Fan, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 689-700, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:51:y:2015:i:4:p:689-700
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1039890
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    Cited by:

    1. Melo, Luis F. & Loaiza, Rubén A. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2016. "Bayesian combination for inflation forecasts: The effects of a prior based on central banks’ estimates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 387-397.
    2. Josef C. Brada & Jan KubÃ­Ä ek & Ali M. Kutan & Vladimír Tomšík, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 357-376, September.
    3. Chris Heaton & Natalia Ponomareva & Qin Zhang, 2020. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy: the simpler the better?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 139-167, January.

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