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Quantification of Survey Expectations by Means of Symbolic Regression via Genetic Programming to Estimate Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European Economies

Author

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  • Oscar Claveria
  • Enric Monte
  • Salvador Torra

Abstract

Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. This study has a twofold aim. First, it proposes a new method to quantify survey-based expectations by means of symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming. Second, it combines the main SR-generated indicators to estimate the evolution of GDP, obtaining the best results for the Czech Republic and Hungary. Finally, it assesses the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, finding that the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth in most Central and Eastern European economies improved after the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2016. "Quantification of Survey Expectations by Means of Symbolic Regression via Genetic Programming to Estimate Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 171-189, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:54:y:2016:i:2:p:171-189
    DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2015.1136564
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming," IREA Working Papers 201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    3. Juan Gabriel Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucía Rosich, 2019. "Common trends in producers’ expectations, the nonlinear linkage with Uruguayan GDP and its implications in economic growth forecasting," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-28, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    4. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
    5. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2685-2706, November.
    6. Juan G Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucia I Rosich, 2021. "On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1970-1982.
    7. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," AQR Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2018.
    8. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marina Matošec, 2020. "Some properties of inflation expectations in the euro area," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 176-203, February.
    9. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.

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