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Central Bank Communication and the Liquidity Trap

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  • STEFANO EUSEPI

Abstract

Central bank communication plays an important role in shaping market participants' expectations. This paper studies a simple nonlinear model of monetary policy where agents have incomplete information about the economic environment. It shows that agents' learning and the dynamics of the economy are heavily affected by central bank's transparency about its policy rule. A monetary authority that does not communicate its rule can induce "learning equilibria" where the economy experiences prolonged periods of deflation and slow growth. More generally, small expectational errors can result in complex economic dynamics, inducing welfare-reducing fluctuations. On the contrary, central bank communication helps stabilizing expectations around the inflation target equilibrium. Copyright (c) 2010 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Eusepi, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and the Liquidity Trap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 373-397, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:42:y:2010:i:2-3:p:373-397
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    Cited by:

    1. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Inflation targeting and liquidity traps under endogenous credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 48-62.
    2. Rhee, Hyuk Jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2013. "Central bank transparency: Does it matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 183-197.
    3. Hyuk Rhee & Nurlan Turdaliev, 2015. "Central bank policy instrument forecasts," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 221-245, October.
    4. Arouri, Mohamed & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "What can we tell about monetary policy synchronization and interdependence over the 2007–2009 global financial crisis?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 175-187.
    5. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Tsouknidis, Dimitris & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Can the tone of central bankers’ speeches discourage potential bank borrowers in the Eurozone?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Xu, Yingying & Liu, Zhixin & Ortiz, Jaime, 2018. "The relationship between media bias and inflation expectations in P.R. China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 402-412.
    7. Eusepi, Stefano & Gibbs, Chris & Preston, Bruce, 2021. "Forward guidance with unanchored expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2021, Bank of Finland.
    8. Arifovic, Jasmina & Petersen, Luba, 2017. "Stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-43.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Liu, Shih-fu & Huang, Wei-chi & Lai, Ching-chong, 2020. "Could Fiscal Policies Overcome a Deep Recession at the Zero Lower Bound?," MPRA Paper 101282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Tumala, Mohammed M., 2019. "A Text Mining Analysis of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
    13. Smales, Lee A. & Apergis, Nick, 2016. "The influence of FOMC member characteristics on the monetary policy decision-making process," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 216-231.
    14. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.
    15. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Central Bank Communication during Economic Recessions: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Eusepi, Stefano & Gibbs, Chris & Preston, Bruce, 2021. "Forward guidance with unanchored expectations," Research Discussion Papers 11/2021, Bank of Finland.
    17. Yingying Xu & Zhixin Liu & Jingjing Chen & Sultan Salem, 2024. "How official TV news affect public inflation expectations? Evidence from the Chinese national broadcaster China Central Television," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 819-831, January.
    18. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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